So, it looks like the US and Iran are about to drop a peace deal in the next day or so. Just caught this on my newsfeed from a source: EXCLUSIVE: U.S., Iran set to unveil draft of peace agreement soon. Trump is also saying that the US, Iran, and some Middle Eastern nations are on board with a peace deal.
Could this signal the start of a Bitcoin bull run? I’m asking because Iran has previously mentioned they might start charging insurance fees in Bitcoin. If they actually make Bitcoin a legit payment method for Hormuz and other industries, that could lead to huge Bitcoin adoption. I'm thinking we might be on the verge of another bull market.
What do you guys think? I’ve noticed Bitcoin seems to be on the rise already.
Not really
People would still expect escalation later on which is nothing new to Trump
And our performance now isn't entirely tied to the war
So even if it is cut off
We may have some days or if we lucky weeks of bull
Before the market goes back to normal.
When the war started, bitcoin price fall a little as usual during such war in the past, but followed as usual (also as it was in the past) by the price of bitcoin increasing which clearly let us know that bitcoin can be a good store of value during war.
Only what I think can happen if the war ends is for the price of crude oil to fall, but I do not think the cease of war will have control over bitcoin price. Bitcoin will naturally works through the bear market and later the bull market will come.
I dont think the war was really having any significant effect on the price of bitcoin, when the war started there were speculation that the bitcoin price might even go below $50k but we never saw it. at some point it even appreciated and went a bit higher than the price it was before the whole war. So I don't think the peace talk will also agitate anything concerning the bitcoin price. The war was never related to bitcoin it was more of political interest and power show off.
Any kind of positive news on the geopolitical event will create a spike on the prices of assets, and that is what happened with bitcoin too, even if the war is not contributing much to the current decline in prices.
But can we trust what Trump says? I mean, even he will forget what he said yesterday and go on to hit the red button.
I wont bet on this deal because previously there have been many similar announcements, but this one is only about a 60 day ceasefire. Even if it happens, it does not mean the war will actually end, which is not what we want. Also, Trump has called it a solid 50/50, and like many times before he has also made strong statements such as saying he would blow them to kingdom come if a deal is not made haha, but I do not take such threats as guaranteed anymore because he has said similar things multiple times. We should also not celebrate or start investing based on this alone, because it could be manipulation and the news might even reverse at the last minute, causing mass panic in the markets and we could see Bitcoin drop to 70k.
Although adoption is real, and the 10 billion plan is quite significant in terms of adoption, eventually they may also sell those BTC holdings. They are not necessarily long term holders, so while it can act as a catalyst for price increases, it can also create selling pressure later, making it a double edged sword.
The thing is any news that actually adds positivity to the market will definitely create demand and this will actually increase the price of bitcoin too, but lets be honest has this war actually affected bitcoin price because even when the war was in full blown war the market was actually pumping, in fact throughout this year bitcoin market has increased in price the more during this war.
So I am not so expecting anything much from this ceasefire but definitely if it actually creates lots of positives like the oil price drops significantly we could see bitcoin hold up its current support and try to break some resistance through more demands coming in.
From my little experience, Bitcoin always reacts to such factors as stated by OP when it relates to government matters. Announcements with such natures always trigger the bitcoin price to either increase or decrease, but this one, in context, possibly would trigger the bitcoin price to a high because it is a peace deal which would definitely increase demand for bitcoin holdings as a result of the peace deal between the two nations. Already, Iran has made bitcoin an official tender for the Hormuz pass, which many ships have complied with, and it has now become an alternative source of revenue generation for them.
Couldn't be sure until the draft comes out.
But like many others, I don't think this peace deal will trigger a new bull market. People's perception is that if peace deal is reached, retailer money will comeback into crypto market all at once.
The reality is the institutional capitals and retailers are injecting money into new data center non stop, chip companies, and artificial intelligence stocks because their recent rally has been pretty phenomenal, of course fund companies will try to invest in them riding the hype.
Bitcoin will have its time, but it's currently all those things I've mentioned that are taking the spotlight. I'd be happy if i'm wrong and crypto suddenly pump hard.
To be honest, it was quite interesting to me that even during the war, Bitcoin hasn't reacted too much. Because normally we can see a huge dump on Bitcoin due to a war like Ukraine and Russia. This time it hasn't reacted much because Bitcoin was already oversold even before the war began. And due to fear, investors had been waiting and avoiding making a new investment.
But right now, if the US and Iran become agreed on a peace deal, then investors would come out of their fear and start thinking of investing again. That means Bitcoin will move its own way; it will either dump or pump. The war won't affect it since the war ended with a peace deal. Let's see when the US and Iran announce that peace deal.
Doesn't a quick start sometimes become something less pleasant?
I myself still see that Bitcoin is still in a long-term bearish trend, so I haven't decided to hold it if I make a purchase.
Every Bitcoin purchase right now, I'm just looking for quick profits, not to hold it for a long time. Unless later it has been confirmed to be long-term bullish.
We may have seen both good news and bad news, but when faced with a long-term bearish trend, the good news seems to be only a momentary price driver. Eventually the bearish trend will reach its peak, just like in the previous bearish cycle.
It doesnt necessarily have to, if we look at whats happened over the past year. When theres been positive news on the subject, in some cases Bitcoin has reacted positively and in others it hasnt. If an announcement is made, there will surely be a generally positive reaction from the markets on that day, but Im not sure whether that will be sustained over time, particularly for Bitcoin. Given everything that has happened this year, the Nasdaq 100 is up 17% whilst Bitcoin is down 12%. I hope Im wrong, but it looks as though this isnt going to be a year of great joy for us.
Firstly when I hear something like this I think of the saying, "buy the hype - sell the news" meaning
there could be a sell off. I have seen it many times in the market. Alot of people expect one thing but
the opposite happens so I call for a Bull market (which technically we are in already)
Anyway in terms of a peace proposal, yea there probably is one but unless either side makes some
serious proposals there will be no agreement. And there is a third side to this - Israel, who does not
want an agreement of peace, it wants the war to continue.
This news which cannot be cannot be taken seriously is either another attempt to influence the markets
on Monday when they open or is a smokescreen before the US attacks again. Mainstream media cant
be trusted.
The bear market had begun and Bitcoin had dropped to $60k before the war broke out.
In addition, it is true that geopolitical and macroeconomic factor have a significant impact on the market. However, those are not the only factors, and the market also has its own cycles.
If the war ends, the market will certainly react positively. But to kickstart a new bull cycle and push Bitcoin to new record highs, I dont think the end of the war alone would be enough.
The peace deal is uncertain, but that is discussion for another topic. However, if we indeed agree that peace is returning soon, i am not sure if it would cause huge inflows into BTC. Investors are aware of how brittle the situation is in the middle east and another conflict can begin no sooner than another ends.
As for charging tolls in BTC, if a deal is to be reached, then it would include the free passage of vessels in the strait of hormuz. So, that means no tolls. I'd say we just have to way and see what happens. How things progress would determine how the market moves.
Do you still believe that the General of Chaos and his clowns want a world where peace reigns? Even if an agreement is reached, it does not mean that both sides will stick to it, and even if that were the case, a new crisis would soon emerge. Whether it will be Cuba or Greenland or maybe something else is less important, and what is important is that the price of Bitcoin is not too dependent on what any two countries will agree on.
The price of Bitcoin today largely depends on how it is manipulated by ETFs, speculation about whether Saylor will start selling or not, and how many coins are traded on the market today - because it seems that the max supply has been played out with too many so-called paper BTCs, which the aforementioned ones are playing with a lot.
In theory, that is possible. However, we all know that the market does not follow any fixed scenario or pattern
Just like when war breaks out, by the book, gold should have surged while Bitcoin and stocks got dumped. But as we have seen, the opposite has happened: Bitcoin and stocks have both risen while gold has fallen.
The market is unpredictable and sometimes more illogical than we think, so do not be overconfident. Instead, always be prepared for any possible situation.
🤔💭 I think if the peace deal includes crypto and bitcoin, the market will be strong. 🚀
Moreover, I don't think it will have any significant impact on the market.
However, it may have some impact on the dollar market and the forex market.📈📉
And Trump's 👀 statement is worthless. He has made many comments in the past that have not been accepted as true🚫.
If the news is true, then it is good, because the world 🌎 is in a very critical situation now.
First of all, until it's properly signed, there's only declarations. And even after it's properly signed, surprises can happen, given the lack on consistency of current POTUS.
However, let's say there will be a proper peace deal.
This would trigger the markets rise and the level of fear going down.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Hmm, it will be interesting. Some may sell Bitcoin to buy stocks. But overall the buy pressure could go up a little.
I will not say it can trigger a bull market, since I expect the current crypto winter still be here at least until autumn. But it can certainly give the price a nice bump.
I don't believe the Bitcoin price will depend on the outcome of a war between Iran and the US/Israel. In my view, this is more of a background process for Bitcoin. We have entered a period of protracted confrontation between various states. This period will last at least 10 years, and most likely longer. 🙋
A war between the US and Iran, in my view, could have two outcomes. The first is a US ground operation in Iran, inevitable losses among the Marines, anger and consolidation of the American public, and the start of a large-scale, multi-year war between the US and Iran. This is the first scenario...
The second scenario is that Iran develops its own nuclear weapons within a year. A year later, it conducts its first test, and then, some time later, a second nuclear test. The whole world realizes that Iran has several nuclear missiles. Meanwhile, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and strengthens military and political cooperation with China and Russia. Iran is effectively becoming a superpower, as control of the Strait of Hormuz means control over vast flows of oil and mineral fertilizers. For the US, this is a strategic defeat.
Personally, I don't see any middle ground. Ultimately, it will come down to either the first or the second option. At the same time, I believe Bitcoin's price dynamics will be determined by other factors. We're trying to link Bitcoin's price to global news. But that's not entirely accurate... Bitcoin has its own fundamental value; it has production costs and real-world applications. This, in my opinion, is what will determine its price. 💁