Is anyone else feeling those May/June 2020 vibes?

I've been looking at the Crypto Fear & Greed Index over time and I can’t help but see the similarities. If you check out the long-term chart, you'll notice how late 2019 was similar to the 2020 crash, and also mid-2022. Now look at what's happening now on the far right. We're literally in the same situation. Here's why this is significant, with some actual figures: Back in 2020, the index was hovering in the teens at the end of 2019, and then COVID hit and it dropped to a shocking low of 8 on March 17 and again on March 26, 2020. That was one of the most extreme fear levels ever seen. Everyone thought it was the end. But guess what? Bitcoin surged by about 123% in the following six weeks and kept climbing toward the peak in early 2021. We went from extreme fear right to extreme greed. Now here's the interesting part related to the title: by May and June of 2020, the recovery was fully underway. BTC had almost tripled from that March low of $3,858, hitting $10,000 by May 6. The halving happened on May 11, and in the next year, the price skyrocketed from around $8,700 to about $55,800 that’s a whopping 540% increase. That quiet period in May and June, right after all the fear, was basically the launchpad that nobody was willing to buy into. Now look at 2022. We saw Terra/Luna collapse, 3AC went under, Celsius also imploded. The index hit rock bottom at 6 in June 2022, even lower than during COVID. It was peak misery, with doom threads all over the place. This capitulation marked the low point that kicked off the entire grind in 2023 and led us into the peaks we expect in 2024-2025. And now, here we are again. Late 2025 into 2026, we find ourselves back in that low-20s and below extreme fear zone, and it just recently dipped to 10 the lowest it's been since 2022. The chart looks the same. The sentiment feels the same. The same people who are saying "it’s over" are out in full force. Just to point out a difference, it’s not about those sharp one-day drops; it’s the lingering feeling.

idk in 2020 coins started slowly climbing up soon after the sell-off and by May-June many did a few hundred % gains off the bottom (i.e. LINK). today many coins once again made new all time lows so we generally just keep bleeding still. fwiw, i think we're still at or around the bottom but the situation is clearly different and we may stay in this fearful near death state for a while.

Yeah, fair points, and I think you nailed the key difference — 2020 was a sharp V off the bottom (LINK doing multi-hundred % is a perfect example), whereas this cycle we're just slow-bleeding into fresh ATLs with no real relief. That's a different character entirely. But the big thing for me is macro, specifically the geopolitics finally cooling off. US/Iran just signed a framework to end the war and Israel/Lebanon have a ceasefire in place — fragile, sure, but the direction is de-escalation for the first time in a while. What stands out even more is that the US is now actively putting pressure on Israel — Trump publicly reining in Netanyahu over the Lebanon strikes, pushing him to stand down. That's a real shift in posture, and it signals the whole "perpetual escalation" trade is changing. And oil's already responding: Brent's dropped something like $17 a barrel over a handful of sessions down into the mid-$70s. Cheap energy + risk premium bleeding out of markets is historically the kind of setup that flips fear into boom times. Liquidity tends to follow once the "world's on fire" trade unwinds. So I'm with you that we're at or near the bottom, I just think the catalyst this time is external/macro rather than an internal crypto V-bounce.

Probably this kinda low are we had seen in the past cycle too. If anyone got funds then its always good to load up or do some dca cause at this point we could be having a reversal. Its been so long that we are on the red pattern and anytime or moment we could really experience what have been waiting for. I had a lots of debts due to my personal problems that need to be settle but I wish I could gain some funds to accumulate some good coins before it explode and consider on bull phase.

You are very correct about this, it is the same bull bear pattern. It is true that nobody knows the price that will be the bottom right now, but I do not think bitcoin will fall significantly further down, but it can end up just falling slightly lower. Even if bitcoin fall further, it is the best time to accumulate bitcoin gradually. The same fear came in 2026, the same greedy will follow in the coming years and bull run again. I just hope I have more time to buy bitcoin because I only have little for now.

I was not around in 2020, but I understand what you mean here. If we observe the fear and greed index alone, we will realize where we are, and you have done great by comparing it with the previous ones to give a better idea, and it makes more sense and urges us to buy more. Also, it emphasizes how vulnerable we are to losing opportunities, especially when they are right in front of us. Instead of using them, we wait and wait for bigger dumps so we could make a little more profit and lose the opportunity to make what was for sure.

To accumulate Bitcoin is very hard for many individuals I must say, mostly when there's so much fear and uncertainty in the market. Also as ETF outflows has slowed down it gets scarier, but it is important to note that the market won't change despite the present fear or candles that show up. Bitcoin still remains dominant and with prospects of rising to an all time high because it is a global hard capped asset that everyone would like to have a piece of, even the government. At this point is where patience pays off most, instead of reacting emotionally to how the market behaves.

I don't even know the architect of this clamoring of price fall this week when the market hasn't breaking the bottom of the approximately $59,000 and $60,000 we've experienced so far this year As at last week or within the weekend and the beginning of this week the market was only at a top recovery of $65,000 and just of recent price declined to $62,000 and we're already beginning to create Fud like we've been jumped into a dump of new bottom. Well, investors with discretionary incomes will always take opportunity to accumulate on Dca in this call while the Fud cuts the weak off. We also don't know what the market is cooking afterwards, maybe create another positive or worsen negative impacts

Unfortunately, that method is no longer feasible. In 2020, not everyone was familiar with Bitcoin and crypto. They only knew about a few sectors of the economic industry. At that time, only those still on the verge of doubt were in the crypto environment. It's natural that the FOMO that emerged from the crypto apocalypse in 2020 caused everyone to panic and sell their assets. This opportunity was stolen by those who control the world with their finances to easily take over crypto. Currently, there is no longer any news of a "crypto apocalypse" that works.

Pattern recognition is a solid point and I really loved the lingering vs spiking distinction which is the most important technical observation in your entire post. Although I don't feel sad for people who leave the market with a single day fear spike and that panic makes them sell because they are the noise, the weak hands and they are supposed to be liquidated. Market makers know that, that's why they are so vulnerable that they could easily be emptied. The comparison is good but one thing worth noting is the institutional presence now vs then, as in 2020 retail dominated the sentiment completely but today new players have entered and through ETFs the liquidity has increased dramatically, so BTC and crypto have formed a strong base and can't be shaken that easily.

I personally consider F&G indicator to be a trap sometime, same with RSI. These two indicator, even when at low doesn't really indicate bottom, the price can go even lower and the indicator could stay at that position for quite a while. I got misled by RSI in the previous cycle, I will buy when I think the risk-reward ratio is okay, but even right now it's already great time to buy if you don't mean some drawdown.

Really? What about quantum and Trump's post on X?

A better version of the image https://i.postimg.cc/NKwpt9sG/fear-greed-history-repeats.png Assuming the peace holds and oil supply/price remains stable, I am calling a massive rebound on $BTC.

Not even remotely the same. We have seen bottom not at 2020 but in 2018 and in 2022. The 2020 was a recovery period, the halving year, something that went higher and higher eventually. We are crashing right now, know the difference. Right now is not the 2020 period, right now is the bear period of 2018 and 2022. What you are going to see 2020 was 2024, and also will be 2028 for example. Those are similar, this one is not. I do not honestly understand that why people look at things from a very short time frame and think that they are seeing the bigger picture. There isn't any specific situation where we can handle this any differently, we should not be considering this to be all that crazy to handle, we could make a lot better returns if we are careful.

March 2020 was 2018 bottom's sweep so basically second bottom. May-June was the active market recovery but I agree now is nothing like that, not even remotely similar.

Other than the AI phrases I didn't like to see hehe (here's why it matters, and here's the kicker), not really, not getting any vibes at all. We're talking about Covid and Luna, 2 big events that nobody saw coming well ok some people saw Luna but to expect 2 more global events like that now, what's the closest I can think of? Ebola? And then Iran war? That's not going to blow out, we all know about it. Not saying nothing similar will happen. Just not getting any vibes.