A lot of technical analysts are saying we could see growth until the end of this year or even into early 2026. They're basing this on the timing of past cycle peaks in relation to the halving dates (which are marked by those yellow vertical lines). According to this view, it looks like we still have about 9 months left in this bull run.
But why are we so sure that halving dates matter that much? If we instead look at when the price actually started to rise, it seems like this current cycle is already longer than the one in 2021.
So what’s the case for the importance of halving dates? And why should we ignore the price movements tied to ETF approvals?
Just trying to spark a discussion here, not making any predictions.
Bitcoin increase in accordance to the 4 year cycle but just that we got to all-time high early before having. But we still have bull run as expected and bitcoin increased more and got to over $100000 after having.
You know people have the 4 year cycle in mind. Expect bear market in 2026. It is going to be good because it will also let people know that bull run years and all-time high are coming again.
We did have bullish start this year, in fact, we even hit a new ATH. So, not to sound bearish, but is it possible that weve already experienced the bull run and were now slowly heading into a bear market?
If you look at the yearly ATH pattern.... we had them in 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, 2024, and as I mentioned, in 2025 as well.
So maybe that bull cycle is over and we are now heading to the bear...
Very hard to answer if we are indeed in the bear market as there are a lot of things that has disrupted today bull run to be even comparable to the previous cycles that he have, like 2017 and 2021. Although in 2021 cycle, there is the pandemic that can we can say also could have reshape everything. But it didn't as we have our usual 4 year cycle and we have the peak at October with a all time high of $69k.
But in this cycle, it's vey different, like the OP mentioned, ETF back new all time high pre-halving.
And so with that, this bull run has been stretch a bit that's why there could be school of thoughts saying that the cycle is coming to an end. But let's see, only time can tell if we will have still something, like a parabolic rise in the last quarter like the previous bull runs.
I think I get your sentiment here, which is many who have been saying there is still more months to go before the cycle come to an end are excluding the pump during ETF periods. From your analysis you want one to include the ETF induced pump and with that youre actually buying into the fact that the cycle might the coming to end base on the past halving cycles.
This your perspective is definitely worth looking into because the price actually started pump pre halving days and even created a new ATH then due to ETF approval hype, something that has never happened before so it is not actually bad looking into this direction. The most analysts arent buying into this because it is pre halving days and are simply sticking to past historical trend which is the actual true data we have now, ETF pump was a FOMO trend and FOMO trend arent use for analysis like this so until the trend changes there cycle is still not closing.
Although the ETF FOMO pump is part of why we are still facing corrections now I think the fluctuating world economy situation is why we are at this stage now, historically we are still not off the past trend as this is simply a correction and might be back up soon
Possible but we cant be able to make out some conclusions yet on which we know that if ever there's no bull run thing or lets say that $109k is already the peak of Bitcoin and with those other altcoins in the market on hitting up new all time highs then it will surely be that creating that very very huge disappointment if ever this one happens. Actually i dont really close up the possibility that the bull is over.
The only thing on what most people been expecting that we will really be able to see some moonshots on just like on what happened into those previous cycles. Well, its still too early to tell that we are already over on which we are still that on the first 3 months of this year. Chart might be showing up some patterns on which it could give out that kind of conclusions and assumptions about those probabilities but actually we do know that this market is unpredictable and this is why its better not to lose your grip and just proceed on what you are currently doing.
Not a chance, unless World War III breaks out and nukes start being thrown, in which case the price of bitcoin is not going to be much of a concern. The point is that you can project many lines into the future on that chart, and you will never know which one is the right one. What I see is a lot of people despairing because the price is at only $85,000. It's a sign that the best is yet to come.
No way we can disregard the bitcoin spot ETF approval when talking about this circle's bull run because that's where price action for the bull run season started from with a new ATH before the halving , and it all had to take the US election to break the awaited $100k mark after some months of price correction.
I suppose everything happened too sudden in this season bull run and the whole dynamisms has made it that we really can't say for certain if the bullish season will exceed 2025 or if we're on the verge of an impending end and we not aware.
The only time I will be of the opinion of a bear setting in is when price go below $70k breaking the strong support within that range to $60k, then we can start talking about the bears
The bullish start of the year makes it more believable that the bullish run year is this year and we may see it last long throughout this year before we begins to think of welcoming the bearish market. The market may have stayed longer than he should we should be expecting a new high after reaching a new one earlier this year. Speculations have it that the market is still going to experience a bullish trend as it is yet to be over, but as it stands now, the market is standing between experiencing a bullish and bearish trend, the consolidation is taken longer time but the larger part of the market are still optimistic of a bull run happening throughout this year and a bearish trend to begin by next year.
The market have been bullish for a very long time, i won't doubt if the signs we are seeing currently signifies the end of the bull cycle but am still being optimistic that we may experience massive increase in the price again before we finally enters the bear cycle. I think we should expect one more news that will cause the price to skyrocket again before we enter the bear season proper, this can't be the end of the bull run.
At some point, it's guaranteed that bitcoin will stop following the typical 4-year cycle.
This may or may not be that time but regardless, trying to predict it is a losing trade imo.
nobody can know what's gonna happen, current price action might differ alot compared to previous bullrun for the simple fact that BTC is more accessible than ever for passive investors and fund management company to diversify to bitcoin.
I personally don't expect there to be sharp downturn if somehow bearish market occurs due to this, but I mean, anything can happen and BTC could always do the same thing it's been doing since decades which is cyclic price action.
as of now, price action weirdly similar to when before BTC hitting ATH where there's a bear trap. hopefully that's the case. really want to see my portfolio grow again.
Yeah people actually calculates the 4 years events cycles based on the previous occurrence which could be determined to when the next event cycle would rightfully come and how long it would perform so, tracing the historical market events, it has not been an approximate sequence timing rather it varies in matter of month (s).
On the course, analysing the past market events to hover predict the schedules for the current events has seem unmatched and undetectable which is why speculations to what the bull duration has been unpredictable because you don't know when exact it would come and how long it would last just as most of us says the bull is over at the value of $110K while some are still anticipating a recovery to continue the bull even to the top at $150K-$200K as implied.
I think too that the cycle hasn't been broken, of course we see ETF one of the factor for the price to hit a new all time high before the halving. But still though, halving itself is every four year and so after that it's just moot and at the end of the year we will still be seeing what others might predicted, $150k as conservative estimates.
And one reason as well is that we might be expecting too much as we have $109k and so with that, it's normal for us to look like we should be at $120k. But with the market very unstable right now or at least in the last two months, our expectations are going to fall short. Still plenty of room for growth for this year.
I'm not a fanatical believer in the "Bitcoin cycle" theory. The historical data shows that there were peaks and drops, but the market reacts to bullish or bearish news. FUD and FOMO is what makes the market prices move, not cycles. Let's assume that the cycle shows that the market price could reach a peak level, but there are FUD news and events. Will the price hit a new ATH(according to the cycle), when there's so much FUD on the financial markets? I'm sure that we all know the answer. I've heard many "crypto experts" saying that the BTC price might drop down to 77K USD in Q2 or Q3, but we might be witnessing another bull run in Q4 of 2025. I hope that the "crypto experts" are right about this.
With the highs and ups we have seen in Bitcoin price this year, it is hard to say whether the bull run circle is coming to an end or we will still see it happen before the end of this year. Whichever way, let me drop the price analysis of Franky1 regarding the 2025 ATH of Bitcoin, whether it is what to expect this year
If you admit that the reason the market has been down in recent months is due to the instability of the world economy. You should be more worried and think about the bear market instead of thinking that this is just a correction in the bull run and we will be back soon. Because there is no sign that the economy will enter a period of stabilization anytime soon as inflation shows no signs of cooling and is likely to rise further due to Trump's tariff war. That's why the Fed is in no rush to cut rates at its March FOMC meeting.
To be fair: everything is uncertain, we are not in bear season yet but there is no guarantee that bull season will continue.
Probably, few people are saying the top was $109K.
You have a reason to compare the previous cycle with the current one based on the time before and after Bitcoin pump. However, people are more believing in four years cycle because the pattern repeated for 3 times, while your scenario haven't proven yet.
I won't be realistic, since I hold most in Bitcoin, I wish the four pattern will happen in the current cycle too.
Just make yourself that getting prepared for whatever things that might happen ahead on which we know that this could really be that resulting into frustration. Just like on what most people been saying that if ever that bull run was already done or have happened with that new all time high of Bitcoin then i cant imagine on how chaotic this market would be on which there would really be tons that will really be that getting disappointed on how the market but just like on what you have said that 4 year cycle had been proven out for how many cycles already and this is why it had become the standard and this is why the entire community had been assuming and presuming that it will be happening on this year itself. The only thing that we should be putting up into your minds that we shouldnt really be that expecting into those numbers about gains or increase that will really be that similar into those previous cycles. Basing up with the current price of Bitcoin then i dont see that it could be able to give that easy x2 of its price.
FUD and also the cycle seem to have support with each other if we understand, when people think when Bitcoin is still running in January 2026 and runs safely without any FUD it will be optimistic that the curse of the cycle will not be repeated but if there is only one FUD that disrupts the market, such as hacking or even small FUD news will be big because the holder of the vigilance of a 4 year cycle recognize it.
If the theory can be proven again in Q4 now we can make it as a strong source of data in recognizing a polarization of the Bitcoin Cycle in the future.
And you might know that at the end of each Bitcoin cycle like you who say that you don't believe in the Bitcoin cycle, they say in 2021 before Q4.