Is the mtgox payout affecting bitcoin prices?

I get that a lot of folks brush off the whole Mt Gox payout situation, saying it won't impact the price. But I'm really interested to know if anyone here thinks it might actually be contributing to keeping bitcoin's price down. When the payouts happen, there’s gonna be a serious amount of bitcoin sold off to cover the claims for those who want cash instead of bitcoin. That's a ton of coins entering the market. And then there's the question of whether those receiving bitcoin will just sell it off for cash. This creates a lot of uncertainty around the price, and it’s hard to predict what will happen. Could Mt Gox dump all these bitcoins in one day and tank the market? Who knows. All this just makes things super risky. Why would anyone want to invest in bitcoin right now with the potential for such a large influx of coins? It might make more sense to hold back and see how the payouts play out after March 10th. I’m really curious if anyone else agrees with me that this situation is likely keeping bitcoin's price from going up for now. Most people seem to think it's no big deal.

Why don't you want to continue the discussion about Mt. Gox in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5441733.0. I think it's only natural that most people have ignored about bitcoin Mt.Gox so far, it's because of there were many delays and failures they've had over the years. I'm not even sure when it will actually be distributed, but of course the market is sure to turn into dump if creditors manage to get their hands on the bitcoin. But don't worry, this is an issue that may only be FUD for some time so you can invest at a lower price.

...So you're looking to recruit a gang to spread some drama on this topic/subject? In the past few years, every few months there was a news about Mt Gox bitcoins about to flood the market soonTM. Indeed, that made me wary.. first 2 times. Now I see it as a non issue. If will ever get released and if too many people will be dumb enough to dump their coins at this rather low price (since we're just after the crypto winter), so be it. But I think that it's rather unlikely. Hence I'm one from the "non-issue" group.

So what do you suggest? That the MtGox users don't get their bitcoin back? If you're that certain that it will push bitcoin's price down, then you can take advantage of it. But the fact is, nothing is certain concerning markets.

I thought that payout will be spread along? from March-September? And not sure if this is the first time that we have heard about Mt. Gox supposedly payout, and again not saying that it wouldn't put a dent in the market, but it's so tiring to here about this in numerous occasions. So let see how it goes, I do agree that nothing is certain, and as experience investors, we should know how to take advantage of the market situations.

If the BTC is confirmed as actively available it doesnt matter too much where its stored in particular.   If all supply is immediately flushed into exchange order books then sure it'll be a blip in the graph while its digested but its all pretty short term.   Other dynamics are why we are stuck in the 20k region and its most about people who bought and sold here previously.   Some people who thought 22k was the bottom are ready to cash out, till the scales tips towards new buyers and optimism in the market we have to stay here to serve the sellers.  That whole iterative process that constantly goes on to provide a price balance is more important then just one event from Mt. Gox, the news on that failure is years old so its not new and not systemic so its not that relevant especially.

Let the Mt. Gox funds bring the price down if it must. Those Mt. Gox users who have been waiting for their money for many years deserve it. Whatever decision they will make, I think there will be no problem whatsoever. If it means the price of Bitcoin will fall all the way to $20,000, $17,000, or even $15,000 and below, I don't personally have a problem. This is Bitcoin. This isn't some centralized and manipulated market. This is a free market. I'm 100% sure that Bitcoin will recover from this and demand will once again dominate the market. The big Mt. Gox supply that will hit the exchanges will be temporary.

I don’t think it’s MtGox yet. They have been delaying it for years and until the coins start to move, I don’t see it being the reason. The silvergate bank is mostly why Bitcoin dropped and on the macro side it’s the huge inflation we still have. Most likely there will be more fed increases and it’s always bad for stocks and crypto. Until the coins actually move we won’t know what affect it will have on the price. Might dump for 1-2 days and then recover.

Even I felt weird for a while with the current dump in BTC price (from 23k to just under 22k) because the US markets didnt fell with us this time. Could be due to mtgox related fear but this release will not happen this year I can almost guarentee that although nothing is certain. SPX already crossed well above 4000 again so btc will again catch up in a few days (judging by the negative funding rates = short squeeze incoming).

The Mt.gox drama has been going on for many years and what they do is just empty promises so people get bored and distrust is understandable. I also don't believe they will return bitcoins to that year's victims. But if it happens then I'm really glad that the victims of that year can finally get their money back, and are even happier if they sell all their bitcoins. Many people fear bitcoin will plummet, but for me, it will be an opportunity to keep shopping for cheap bitcoin.

Yes, it is not a big problem for the most part. The compensation will not be in full at once for all those affected, but will be in installments in the long term, so there will be no dumping of the market. Also, those affected who will receive compensation will most likely not sell their bitcoins that they got at this low price now, of course it is possible that some of them will sell directly, but most likely they will wait for the market to rise. In any case, this is just speculation, and no one knows for sure what might happen until the actual distribution takes place.

If you think that these depositors will get their money soon, then most likely you are not following the details. All that happens is food to control prices or attempts to analyze from some locals to show why the price rose or fell. Such statements have pressure at the beginning of trading, but with the passage of time and the more such news increases, its effect ceases to appear. Therefore, it has no effect on the price.

Commented on a separate post about MtGox. It didn't ever have a significant or long-lasting effect before (regardless of whether coins were needed to be bought or sold). Negligible impact now, if any. We've seen this before in the news tropes (China mining ban, institutional futures like CME, etc.). It might work when new. It might even work when regurgitated in a new cycle, having reached new audiences. But the effect wanes, and can't take hold. Sorry but Bitcoin has been vaccinated against Gox.

The current price slow down is due to the major resistance that keeps blocking the uptrend movement. I think MtGox news is not yet being use as FUD on current times because the price dip will be more insane than the current price setback. Also MtGox token will be distribute in parts so their Bitcoin will not gonna give huge impact on the price unless it will be used to create a FUD among the crypto pips on the social nevertheless it’s not a big deal to cause huge dump or slow down the trend.

I also think the current price has nothing to do with MTGox. As I have written before, the amount that is paid out is not so high that it can drive the market price down. Also, I assume that even if people get their Bitcoins back, they won't all be sold at once. There will certainly be enough people who will continue to hold their Bitcoins and wait for a new ATH.

For long term holders of bitcoin who are willing to hold it for a few years, they don't care if its value drops now in the market. The only ones affected by such scenarios are those who are not yet deeply involved in the Bitcoin industry.       Now, for scalpers this is an opportunity for them to buy bitcoin again in a short period of time because they know the movement in the crypto market. So for me what you say is irrelevant op.

Honestly if I am one of those victims that have been waiting for my funds to get refunded and then I've received it, without any doubt that I'll spend it like there's no tomorrow so I'll totally sell all of it and if not all, then a large part of it. Whatever is the reason with the sudden falling of bitcoin's price. Let's appreciate also the reasons why it has been up coming from the lowest that it had after the bull run of 2021 which made bitcoin $16k. Every time we don't like the movement of the market, we're thinking a lot of things and that's no good for our own cause because it will just create a panic attack if you keep thinking about it.

Disagree. Mt.Gox payment is nothing compared to the market, it is people that keep the bitcoin price down and it will always be people who keep it down. There is no scenario where something as small as this payout could ever keep bitcoin down, there will be a lot of people who think like that, and they will suspect this to be bigger than what it is today, but the reality is that bitcoin is much larger and it can't be kept down by something so insignificant. I believe that people are just not that much into it at this moment and they can't see it growing just yet and that is why they are not buying right now and that is the main reason why it is not growing at this moment.

I think it depends on the victim’s situation. There really isn’t a difference between having funds held by the gox bankruptcy and cold storage. Except the declining amount as a result of lawyers being paid. I imagine a lot of those victims stayed in Bitcoin and probably have other BTC they could sell if they wanted. I’m sure there are a couple whales who will dump but not everybody.

If we do look about into those amounts then it is really that lucky that they are really returning victims or users funds in half in btc and half in fiat which i could consider that it did really lessen out the risk on making the market do crash out specially with Bitcoin.Although it wont really be that much in a concern because no matter how hard we do crash there's always a recovery. This is not really that shocking anymore if we do speak about negative news or fundamentals because the market could neither affect it out or not. If ever it crashes then there are lots of people on the community and investors would really be catching out on that bottom.