Is the Venezuela Hype Just a Short-Term Pump?

Venezuelan news is getting people all hyped up, kinda like when Saddam was captured. We saw a big jump in the markets, but then they leveled out. Do you think futures are gearing up for another gap fill before those macro reports drop on Monday?

This is just like any major news events that may impact on the price temporarily and after everything will go back to normal. I don't see any major impacts that this is going to have in the market because already every major world power is reacting to this news as most countries are condemning the actions of the United States of America. In the  crypto market nothing has changed as a result of this news , what is really impacted by this event is the price of oil which Venezuela is a great supplier.

Right! headline risk from geopolitical news like Venezuela can move prices briefly, but if fundamentals aren’t broken, markets normalize quickly. Oil gets hit harder because Venezuela’s oil history actually affects supply assumptions, whereas crypto is decentralized and runs 24/7 with its own drivers.

There is no reason for this to have a big impact on the price. The issue of Venezuela holding Bitcoin and buying Bitcoin by selling oil may have had a small impact on the Bitcoin market for a while, but it is not a major change. People are thinking that if Venezuela really holds 600,000 Bitcoins and the United States seizes them, then there is a possibility that 600,000 Bitcoins will remain unsold for a long time, which will reduce the current supply of Bitcoin in the market, which will cause a small market change. If this had happened five years ago, there might have been a big change in the price of Bitcoin, but now the number of Bitcoin holders has increased significantly, so Bitcoin is slowly returning to equilibrium.

People are over-estimating the size of the Bitcoin holdings of this country. I am sure we indeed have Bitcoin but that figure is too big and the private keys of those Bitcoins are not in public hands, like in El Salvador or other countries which openly hold Bitcoin, private keys are in the hands of elite politicians who treat those Bitcoin as their private property, even though they mined and acquired those Bitcoins with public electricity and with public money. Basically we are talking about Bitcoins which are product of corruption, those Bitcoin will not be seized by the government of the United States so easily, and those who hold them are probably mixing them as we speak, so they can keep them in the future.

Obviously this would be something that people will care about, and something that people will react to as well. You do not see everyday one nation going and taking over another nations president. Doesn't matter how "evil" you find the president of a nation, it doesn't change the fact that it is not that common. Putin is also evil, can anyone go and take him? Of course not. So we see evil all around us, and very very rarely we see anyone taken over by another nation. Usually if someone president is also evil, the general rule of thumb is, the nation itself handles it.

I really would want to see a broader view on how the Venezuela headline sparked up a surge, will it be the world view over the incident that happened in Venezuela that must have caused the spark or Venezuela Bitcoin because adoption is so significance that their president adoption caused an outreach that affected the market. As for when Saddam Hussein was adopted, I don't think bitcoin was the existence then probably those who have stock then would come and give some explanation.