Is this time really different?

So, I came across a blog last week claiming that the Bitcoin chart isn’t looking bearish. But honestly, it kinda looks like a double top setup on the higher timeframes. That’s pretty much what we saw before the drop in 2021. Now I’m left wondering if this time is gonna be different. Can the demand from institutions and the government for Bitcoin turn things around for the chart this time? I’d love to hear your thoughts on this.

The institutional investors (yes!) and probably government regulations are making the market more stable now. So a bearish market might not be the same as before, where the price would drop significantly and take a long time to recover. This time, any downturn might be shorter. Earlier this year, we saw bitcoin drop below $100k, hit $70k, and now it’s trading strongly at $100k.

First, could you please share the chart you’re referring to, just to make sure we’re looking at the same thing? If I give my opinion and we’re not looking at the same chart, we’ll probably end up talking about different things and won’t be on the same page.

He said it's a higher time frame. Try the daytime frame and make sure it's the BTCUSD pair. As far as I can tell, the OP is correct: it is a double top with the possibility of a reversal. If the 100k level is broken, the market can be bearish in the long run. However, we are not future tellers; we are just analyzing the market to know the probabilities. For now, the price is still under $100k. If the next few days or next week break the $100k level, I'm sure there will be a panic selling with some bad news out there to support the momentum.

Would you mind sharing it here so we can read that blog too? Sometimes I dont trust those writing articles, especially if the author doesn't know anything about Bitcoin. They speculate beyond the truth. Bitcoin price sentiment could repeat itself, but not the same scenario. So I think it would be different at that time. Possible, and there could be an impact. Considering they are the big whale on the market, and in fact, Bitcoin prices rise when institutional interest grows, as confirmed by market data from early to mid-2025.

"This time is different" is a most classic saying in any financial market. People mostly believe that this time will be different but the market and reality are usually very opposite than what they hope for. It means market has its own history, market cycle and often repeats itself. In other words, market usually does not move different than past cycles and if you bet on probability of "this time is different", you are taking very high risk of becoming a loser in this market. Will this market has longer bullish time than past market cycles, to be honest, I don't know but I don't bet on "this cycle is different" as my priority is defending my fund. History can be changed but let it be, and before a new history of Bitcoin market cycle is confirmed, I don't gamble on it.

That's why I'm less optimistic right now that Bitcoin will reach as high as $125,000 or even $120,000. That double top formation could mean 2 things. We've already reached the peak of this bull run, or it's just a normal movement and we will see still new ATHs in the following weeks or months. I looked at the chart, and I didn't see the same bearish divergence that we saw when it reached $109,000 last January. If there are divergences being formed then that's a big sign that the market might be reversing, but so far we haven't seen it yet, so still it is bullish. At the end of the day, it will all depends on how people read the charts. That double top formation might be bearish for some, but for some, that might not be. As for the Government and those institutions out there, they aren't superheroes where they will save the world.

In the last months of this year, I do not know what will happen, some people are saying already that bitcoin may not go on long bearish season but I am still not optimistic about it. I noticed this that you are saying, that bitcoin may fall not long from now but I noticed some people are holding the price not to fall below $100000. I am just a little confused but it is better to convert some bitcoin to some fiat or stable coins if you know you can not afford to lose your profit and wait until the end of bear market if it happens. I still think the bear market is coming but bitcoin may not fall be significantly and it will be in last months of this year to many months in 2026.

I can say the institutional investors and the governments involvement with bitcoin strategic reserves has to a large extent changed certain courses in the market history. One of such can be seen in the duration of this season's bull run, which has been one longer than others in bitcoin history. I also can assume that the double top which the market has formed wouldn't be unconnected to the intense war conflict effect on the global economy arising from the Iran and Israel strikes. Am optimistic that this price fall is a momentary one on bitcoin price because the bulls isn't over yet.

Not sure what will the institutions and government demands do about crypto, can you send to me the double top formation you've been referring to? I don't think we are into that, if we are going to base the current market to previous data of Bitcoin, it's almost the same and it's the start of the bull market. Some people and groups are saying that buying Bitcoin today is like buying at $10k in 2020 so it's worth it to buy or at least to save some Bitcoin now.

Without seeing the chart you are referring to, OP. All we can say are pure speculations and wonderings. But what I can say is that we can never expect the past bear season to be the same as the coming bear market. The same thing with the ATH. If we see the price of Bitcoin go down $40k before, most likely it will not happen again. What we called a bull season in the past year seems to be our bearish price now. Why? The demand is increasing for some reasons, pushing the price to move higher as well.

Technically, I still see Bitcoin as still in a bullish moment. Even if we look at several indicators such as RSI, MA and MACD, we can still see that Bitcoin can still be expected to remain bullish. But I haven't checked for large timeframes. But I'm pretty sure we're still on a bullish track. Small corrections can still occur and that is normal. And so fundamentally, I see that Bitcoin is still strong. I still don't see any factors that could make Bitcoin fall at this time. but we also have to be alert to news related to bad economics, war and regulations and so on which usually have an impact that can even undermine technical analysis and reverse trends. But as long as we hold it for the long term I don't think there's much to worry about. But for short-term holders, they still have to monitor regularly all factors that can influence the market. DYOR

I think it is actually correct and even up to now, BTC seems still bullish. Although indeed there are still plenty of online contents that are miss leading, so we need to be careful about them if we don't know or we only have a less knowledge on the thing that they are talking about. In terms of formation, maybe the same scenario can repeat but not the exact price anymore because the adoption right now is pretty solid already. Simple interest without an action won't make a change but we must not also under estimate the retail investors. In fact, their numbers are much more and if we combine all those small demands, that can make a big thing already.

The chart shows that the potential to continue from the previous month is still strong if current market conditions persist. I see that now, but I don't know what the future holds. At least to keep us from being left behind in the upward momentum like last month with the forecast to reach $120k, we should prepare the best strategy, whether to sell when it is reached at $120k and go back to holding while waiting for the price to drop again to buy. Clearly, Bitcoin remains a hedge asset with a reminder of 1 BTC = 1 BTC.

On the monthly and weekly chart widow, Bitcoin price looks bullish to me with about 3 green candles and still shows the signs of trend continuation. Though experts can make mistakes with price analysis of Bitcoin, likewise me but I am just stating my opinion base on what I see on the chart. There's a strong support for Bitcoin on the weekly widow and the support is at $74k price level, if truly the price is bearish as you have said, it might not go below that support if it start falling from this current $107k.

The double top in 2021 was the result of FTX pulling a massive scam where they took customer funds that they thought were buying Bitcoin, and dumped them into various shitcoins.  Looking back at that and expecting a repeat here would be expecting another crazy fraudulent event to happen right at the exact same time in the cycle as last cycle.  I don't think that's very likely.  More likely we will continue to rally into September, get close to $200K, and then crash spectacularly once the S&P funds have all made their way into Bitcoin.

Are you real? You are in BTCtalk, but you don't know the current chart of BTC? You are in the trading section. People here should know the current price action and structure. I don't know why others are posting here without checking the current BTCUSD chart. Like OP said and my previous post, BTC already formed a double top. Usually a double top on the daily time frame shows a signal for reversal. If you are not a trader, you don't know what a double top is. It usually happens even on short-term time frames; it's proven to be a signal for reversals. Since you know that BTC can drop to $40k, it isn't impossible for it to happen again. We are not fortune tellers to know the future or what the price of BTC will be. What we can do is analyze the chart and predict probabilities.

From your title there is no difference which I have this strong support about the market at least gaining some height before it would resist again. If one could remembered we can say that is time passes the more things changes as well. Another thing is to how take bold steps after carefully do our analysis over the market, knowing when to start, when to stop or even sets a TP and SP.

In the past, bitcoin market has shown double top, triple top and head & shoulder patterns but where are today trading around, I mean all these are short term hiccups, you never need to mind these if you are aiming for 2030 or beyond. Moreover, a long term holder would love such patterns to get ready more purchasing. I agree with respect current scenarios of bitcoin market, bulls may lose their strength and bears may start dominate at any time. Still, there are plenty of room for market to remain sideways for 2 more weeks as well. Do not forget, we are in a very next year from a halving which is known for wild bullish as per bitcoin history. We may not have 10x this year as well but at least 2x or 3x from previous cycle's ATH must be still achievable. So, I still remain bullish and will make use of all dips.

I don't know from what angle the blogpost saw the bearishness of Bitcoin because from a higher timeframes – Weekly and Monthly, charts show it's bullish though there's a strong resistance around $107,740 and on the weekly close for last week there's a reversal candle which the present weekly candle is proving stubborn to obey. Hopefully, fundamentals from government and institutions will push price above to break that resistance up there. The only sad thing now is this ongoing war between Israel and Iran. Bitcoin will likely dump seriously once the US becomes actively involved in this war. That's my thought on it.