Looks like the old thread got shut down. lucif's got a new name now. Let’s restart the analysis.
So, figuring out the trend... right now, the mid-term trend is up in the air. The market’s gonna make its choice soon, and if you're after trading tips, here’s mine: just steer clear of trading for now and stash your cash where you feel comfy either in fiat or btc.
The last chart I sketched out was this potential triangle.
Is it possible to really do any analysis on MtGox "fake" numbers? I mean the MtGox price is reflecting a risk premium that didn't exist (or existed to a lesser extent) in the past so any trends drawn from it are based on a false assumption that the "risk premium" has been consistent. It hasn't, it has been rising over time. As an example I wouldn't see MtGox price rising >$120 to have any trend validity if the price on other exchanges remains <$100. That certainly could happen if the spread widens further as confidence declines. On the other hand if MtGox resolves their issues I could see the MtGox price fall dramatically as the risk premium shrinks but that says nothing about the overall exchange rate trend if the price doesn't fall on other exchanges.
Another way to put it. Each % that MtGox trades over bitstamp (or the average of all other exchanges if you want) reflects the risk that one will never get their USD. That risk premium can trade independently of the Bitcoin exchange rate trend. In theory you could have overall prices trending down but MtGox prices trending up at the same time. Unless you normalize for that you are essentially charting the product of two independent variables and assuming the output reflect the change in one of those variables.
Death and Taxes pretty much summed up my opinion. Trading on Mt. Gox means trading at a much higher risk premium (over 10% ?!?) and I wouldn't consider that to be an element of price discovery for bitcoin itself. I think you would have a better analysis of Gox prices if you charted out the magnitude of the risk premium over an average price of the other populated exchanges. As that premium expands/contracts the price would be less/more reflective of the underlying asset, and since Gox is still pretty much the flagship exchange it would mean any technical analysis would represent the overall market a little worse/better.
Without some sort of way to measure that element though, I wouldn't put much faith in any analysis of Gox prices as they relate to the overall market.
But they don't. The gap between MtGox and other exchanges is growing. If it was linear that one be one thing but it isn't so charting MtGox price is charting the output of two independent variables, the risk premium and the exchange rate. Say Mtgox price doubles tomorrow because there is a scare that their bank has been seized. Now assume the price hasn't doubled on any other exchange. Does MtGox going to ~$200 break the trendline? I guess it depends on which trend are you charting, the risk premium, or the true exchange rate?
Which trend are you charting? It can't be both if they are moving independently of each other.
Bye lucif, hi masterluc.
I find it very tempting to take a long position at $105 or wherever my 6-hour indicators tell me of an intermediate bottom. However, if it is not an intermediate bottom but worse I would be toasted.
Choices, choices.
Actually, the hardest part of trading is waiting for the right moment.
$108 has been holding for 3 days on Gox right now, will it continue to hold ?
People have been talking about potential bearish reversal patterns in IRC.
I guess it's upto a whale.
I agree that until Gox pulls its shit together the price is distorted by the unavailability of steady USD withdrawals, which make the BTC price higher than it should be. From the other side, biggish SEPA transfers worked charms for me (and I realized that high 5 figures withdrawals clear faster than smaller ones, some times I received my money into my account 2 days after requesting the withdrawal. Thus, transfers are processed in order is BS: bigger transfers have priority, I experienced that myself).
This leads me to think that whale traders/market makers outside the US are not having this big problems everybody is whining about in these forums (note that everybody complaining requested to withdraw very small amounts, 10k or less), so all this "Gox is broke" song may be blown out of proportion.
We'll see, personally I'm betting on Gox solving its problems and I did not move my funds to Bitstamp. I'm in the EU and not in the US, this obviously had his weight in my decision, but nevertheless any problem Gox might be suffering will hit the other exchanges for sure.
It's not that simple. If price at Mtgox rises while the others are still, it might have been. But prices rise and fall everywhere pretty much simultaneously, it just rises more at Mtgox.
Or, it is prices elsewhere that are artificially kept _down_ because Mtgox users cash out there?
Boths views are equally valid in my opinion. One has to look at how volumes in/out changes at each exchange to know more.
I don't believe you.
If it was true what you said, then arbitrage would work, and the price gap would not be widening.
Are you willing to back up your statement with a screenshot?