What kind of performance can I expect from a 50TH Bitcoin miner when it comes to solving a single block by itself? Do you think the odds are significantly better? I reckon I could keep this up for some time, but a buddy of mine argues that it'd be smarter to mine with 120TH over a month instead of 50TH for two months straight.
Which setup do you think has a better shot at solving a block? I still need to get back to the pool and mine like I usually do.
It is a strict 1:1 relationship. Compared to a 50TH miner a 100TH one has twice the chance of finding a block, 150TH has 3x, etc. Considering even several PH still means a block every few years at best, better question would be if you can afford paying the power bill for what may be 1 block in a lifetime...
Mine on a pool at 50th and do not use the miner for a month or 2 months or 3 months mining solo.
But every 13 days mine 13 hours solo with your 50th miner.
This is the exact same as mining 2 bitaxes 24 hours a day for 13 days in a row.
13days x 24=312 hours
13hours ÷312= 0.0416667
0.0416667 x 50th = 2.08th
No cost buying new gear.
Your cost is about 13÷24= 54.1667 percent of 1 days earnings of your 50th machine.
So 50 x 3.6 cents is 1.80 usd
Which means 54.1667 x 1.80 usd
That is 97.5 cents every 13 days
Or 365÷13= 28
28 x 1 = 28 bucks a year
With out buying new gear
With out spending more power.
And earnings of btc are reduced about 28 bucks at current price.
This is a very simple math problem:
50 terahashes * 60 days = 3,000 terahash-days.
120 terahashes * 30 days = 3,600 terahash-days.
In the second scenario, you have a high probability of finding a block if the overall hashrate doesn't drop.
But even with a hashrate of 120 terahashes, the chances are very slim.
Considering how saturated mining already is you are dependent more on luck than actual math here. Compared to other competitors that mine with much larger hash rates, your chances of getting a block is thinner plus if you run such a setup with a block in mind you might give up because of costs against what you eventually make at the and of the day.
Most solo miners that have hit that reward were lucky and we're not even expecting it to come. If you check Phil's calculations you'll see you're on the losing side especially if you are in a place with high tariff.
You can't ignore mathematics in mining. If the task were: Mine with a 50 terahash hashrate for 60 days or mine with a 100 terahash hashrate for 30 days with a network hashrate of 1 ZH/s, then mathematically, with equal electricity consumption in both options, it would be more profitable to choose the higher hashrate for fewer days. I can explain why, but you can figure it out for yourself.
If we go by the math, the second option is slightly better.
Network hashrate ≈ 600 EH/s (thats 600,000,000 TH/s)
Blocks per month ≈ 4,320
Case A: 50 TH/s for 2 months
Effective work: 100 TH·months
Case B: 120 TH/s for 1 month
Effective work: 120 TH·months
So your friend is right on raw math:
120 TH/s for 1 month ≈ 20% more total work
But in both cases the chances are low, so I wish you good luck.