Noticed a pricing trend on Polymarket

I've been seeing that Polymarket sometimes has these "boring winners" priced lower than they should be. When something seems super likely but the payout isn't great, many folks just skip it. Meanwhile, the less likely options still attract bets since people love a good underdog. This dynamic can make the obvious choices cheaper than expected. For instance, take the market on yesterday's peace deal. It didn’t seem guaranteed, but the odds felt skewed towards the less likely outcome, in my opinion. I’m curious if anyone else has picked up on this trend in other markets. Let’s talk about it.

Because theres a little chance of winning and it depends on the topic at hand. Like those obvious win will likely not bet on the less odds or chances of winning. Thats why its better to pick a bet with an almoat 60/40 or 50/50 bet options. That way the potential chance is thrilling. But there are cases that low probably win can happened and the amount is really huge but thats very rare.

This is a normal happening in the Polymarket and any other planned markets/betting platforms like this. If the outcome is highly predictable, the potential rewards will be low, and vice versa. Specifically, the peace deal is difficult to predict, judging by what happened before the war and even after the ceasefire when JD Vance was unable to secure a deal with Iran. How sure is it that a deal could go through now? The chance is slim. And so is the potential rewards, simple!

I was thinking you want to discuss about an unusual odds pattern on Polymarket but you only discussed about the usual odds. You should expect that the odds for the ones that have high probability of happening would be very low while those that has very low probability of happening would have very high odds. This is not new at all.