Check this out: anyone who thinks Polygon's co-founder Sandeep Nailwal might be wrong could end up losing cash when the bear market hits. Sure, if it’s just bitcoin, that loss might not be realized if it eventually hits another all-time high. But honestly, altcoins are likely to drop even more, and many of them probably won’t see another ATH anytime soon.
Also, it was mentioned that the strategic reserve the U.S. government greenlit is one reason the typical four-year cycle might be thrown off. Just to clarify, the reserve will only include funds that were stolen and confiscated, not that the U.S. is actively buying bitcoin.
We really need to see how things play out before jumping to any conclusions.
What’s your take on this? I was skeptical about the bitcoin reserve before it was announced, but the way it was rolled out and the subsequent market drop really makes me doubt the whole situation.
Why do we always think that the markets bullish or bearish trend depends on the US? Just because there was a bull run when Trump won the presidency, doesnt mean everything should always be based on US actions.
If we continue thinking this way, then were basically making crypto feel centralized, and it would actually become more obviously manipulated than before. In the past, we suspected manipulation, but at least we didnt know exactly who was behind it. Now, if we attribute every market movement to US decisions, then were just proving that crypto is not as decentralized as we want to believe.
This is clearly altcoins, polygon founder is just hitting the fact that altcoins season will probably never come again not bitcoin 4 years cycle being interrupted, if he says bitcoin cycle is permanently shifted as you said then the next halving won't happen no more so his unrealistic if he says bitcoin but when he mentions crypto he is definitely refering to altcoins.
I don't think we just think that way for no reason; it's a bitter truth that we need to accept to some level. US policies affect almost all the markets; it's just too obvious in the Trump era, but it has always been so, so they hold a greater impact on the market, which could also be linked to the economy's position.
Almost all crypto is already centralized; only bitcoin is decentralized among all the major coins, but the market is fully centralized; even bitcoin, to some extent, now can't resist market manipulation.
The man and institution with the fastest pocket can control the market to their favor. That's entirely what's going to be happening when higher-ups (government and institutional investors) pick interest in an asset like bitcoin.
Though i can't say with all full assurance about the market but what we must know is that everything has phase and waves it surely brings to the space, for instance when new thing happens the effects aren't usually permanent or stable maybe after some months/year then the market would have to make a balance and stability to realigned with previous standard it usually be. And for sure, we can't say that most of the altcoin survived during bear run or after bear run most of them doesn't create new ATH any longer because this could as a reason of higher volatility over bitcoin, bitcoin is more trusted and reliable in term of making investment.
This was a disappointment, but the cycle will eventually change in the long run. So whether it happens now or not, we can still expect some shifts in the market. If a bull run doesnt come for altcoins at this moment, so be it, there will always be a time when the entire market turns bullish.
Right now, the U.S. seems to be driving all the hype in the crypto market, almost as if theyre controlling it. But dont be fooled because no one could control the crypto market forever, that's the power of decentralization.
I kinda agreed with his statement in regard of the drawdown.
but also disagree on his take about blue chip crypto (except BTC). what we can expect from altcoin when something like ETH hardly reaching its ATH and instead getting slashed of its value at BTC ATH, the blue chip crypto that he mentioned won't be blue chip no more in just 4 years.
best course of action is just sticking with BTC if any, since it got the most attention, even if trump declared to support US made crypto, BTC is the one that's more likely being used as reserve first.
also the one where big investors are investing heavily.
but, the drawdown for bitcoin more likely will decrease, with ETF and strategic reserve.
The market depends on what the US government does. So far the president is making the market bullish that maybe banks are going to be buying BTC soon. It does look centralized not just because markets depends on US institutions but its because the market is already regulated.
The supercycle that speculators been expecting was being said back n 2020. It didn't happen though. But whether the cycle is changed or not, its something to look at because of the Bitcoin supply.
We all for fall it, and that' what the investors are disappointed, when we think that the US government is going to buy more, but that is not the case. They will just hold on the current cryptos that they have.
However, I do not think that this is the reason why the market could have shifted. It's more on the ETF, because if you look about at, it pushes Bitcoin to have a new all time high before the halving. That is the first time that we have seen it. So somewhat it distorted everything as what we have seen. Nevertheless, it's hard to say as we still have this year so see if our conclusion are true and if it is going to be validated.
There was altcoins season in 2024. That is what most people do not know. You can see how new coins pumped more than 10 times while some pumped more than 20 times before they dumped. Old coins were the coins that increased last with ripple making it up to January of this year. But most old coins did not go more than 5 time. Altseason has come and went. We are waiting for another cycle again.
Probably because theyre not satisfied yet with what theyve seen. Compared to past altcoin seasons, this one feels different. back then, many altcoins, even older ones, reached their ATHs. Last year, it seemed like meme coins dominated the market, so we cant really call that an altcoin season. Instead, it was more of a meme coin season.
Since OP is referring about the crypto market, I guess there are really some big changes. If we were only looking at Bitcoin, the cycle would likely remain the same, with not much changing.
Also, the U.S. saying they will consider crypto as part of their strategic reserve isnt a big deal in terms of how crypto will be acquired. What matters is that once the U.S. takes that step, other countries will likely follow. So just be patient, and eventually that will drive to more adoption from the government side which would boost the confidence of people in using bitcoin.
In the last cycle before this one. I mean in 2020/2021. Most altcoins that are old coins did not get to all-time high as usual. That was the time I first discovered the pattern that altcoins are not store of value but pump and dump scheme. It happened just like that this time also. There are many more altcoinstalks now also as the crypto market is becoming bigger.
Really? Most old coins didn't go more than 5 times? The old coins I can think of are ETH, LTC, XRP, DOGE... didn't exactly pay attention but I'm almost certain none of them even breached their previous ATH (if old coin means one that has at least experienced two Bitcoin ATH cycles). I would say those that only had 1 ATH aren't old, they're just running their shelf life.
If 5x qualified as a season, you can find almost any given month a coin that's done that, every year. Pump and... what was the word for it again?
What qualifies it as altseason is because in 2024, almost all the coins increased in price. It started with coins like Pepe, Floki, People and several of them which were not that new. New tokens continue to pump at the time and throughout 2024. There was a time it was tokens on Ton network and others. SUI tokens were among. The last were the old coins that later increased and the altcoin market cooled down. You can go through each con price and see what I am mean. I have been saying it since end of 2024 that altseason has come and gone but I am surprised how people did not see it.
There is high probability that we are going to have bitcoin all time high before the end of this year, but there is no any established fact concerning that of the altcoins, so if Sandeep think of the either of the way, he have his own reason best known to himself, even if the loss comes in, he can still afford to take it because he has enough and have made enough to help his sustainability at the course.
Bitcoin reserve may not have to be the reason for the market pump and dump this time around, anything new can happen and things change from how we have been expecting for it.
Some says it doesn't but for me, I also believe it does due to the involvement of president Trump in BTC/crypto last time, however when it comes to the price or the market, I don't see it is in bullish mode right now upon checking it. Maybe you mean to say bearish? Because you also said that banks are then buying, as we know that the bear is the best time to accumulate a crypto.
BTC is still decentralized despite of some dependence and manipulations. Also if there is regulated here, that will only be the service related to it like exchanges for example. I believe that the cycle will still be the same and not be changed but it is just that there maybe some cycles that are not usual or what you said there as super/supercycle.
The more people saying the cycle has changed I guess it would feel it has changed as well. This is what we tell to ourselves when we want something to happen. Maybe its just the narrative we are changing but the cycle still is the same.
The narrative always changes what we are seeing and may even change our views to what will happen in the future. It would feel like cycle has changed because of the adoption but the bear are away going to keep pulling the price down a year after the halving.
people think crypto depends on the US because it's where the money at.
people can vote with money, otherwise market won't have that much capital influx, companies that bought BTC by the billions are all from the US, rarely I see ones from other countries, if any, at best they bought few millions.
so people's thought of crypto being dependant to US market is pretty valid.
it's not about manipulation, it's about where the money is at.
Well, i dont really care on what happens on which im confident on whenever my investment will be going whether on Bitcoin or with my altcoin stashes on which the best way to have is not to put all of your eggs on one basket or simply going all in with crypto. You would definitely be ending up on being impulsive at the time or moment that you do put up all the money you do have on which this isnt really that recommended on any angle. The bad thing on here is that there were really investors who do have this kind of approach on which they do get all in. When it comes into these kind of semi-negative sentiments then its not really that new and also its not really that proven out above if those stolen Bitcoins were used to buy or whatever things they would really be having those kind of plans.
Anyone could really give out their views and their own opinions on what are the things that they do observe within the market specially that they've been seeing negative into their ports then there would really be that some mix of negativity on which its not really that new anymore. So for you who do able to read up and since these people were devs on some known altcoins then its likely that you would really be agreeing on them but if you do really just that read up and accept about their opinions then it isnt that bad either. Mind your own investment and just let it flow.