The Black Swan challenge: what are the super rare events in crypto?

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lonewhaleSenior Member
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#1Mar 5, 2020, 09:07 AM
It's pretty fascinating to be super ready for something that's incredibly unlikely to happen. So, what do you think is an event that’s really rare (but still within the realm of possibility) in crypto? I’m not talking about BTC crashing to under $1000 during a major economic meltdown. I’m referring to those extreme long-shot scenarios... stuff with a one in a million chance. Actual Black Swans. What do you think could fit into this Black Swan competition? What are the factors or strange coincidences that might push these events into reality?
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r3al_b3arMember
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#2Mar 5, 2020, 11:47 PM
I believe that nothing like this will happen in Bitcoin or the crypto market, but even then, if I had to say it, I would say it this way: Bitcoin will definitely rule as long as civilization on this earth survives or the internet is completely wiped out on the planet. For Bitcoin to completely disappear, this human civilization would have to disappear like the age of the dinosaurs. And besides, many people make another argument that if quantum computers are successful, they could be a threat to Bitcoin, but I hope that then the developers of Bitcoin will be able to find a solution or a way to prevent it. Although ultimately quantum computers are still a mythological things.
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0xAtlasFull Member
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#3Mar 6, 2020, 03:26 AM
What black swan event that may affect the bitcoin price to extremely fall would not be a similar event that has happened in the cryptocurrency industry before, cause presently the market has gotten accustomed to any event of a crash by any crypto related institutions as it were in past time, a short time effect it only can be. May be what can extremely affect price steeping extremely low and struggle in a long period to recover will be Satoshi truly being identified or the most famous Satoshi bitcoin wallet address making transactions that moves his bitcoins to unknown addresses. The probability of this happening is extremely unlikely also.
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lonewhaleSenior Member
Posts: 328 · Reputation: 1624
#4Mar 6, 2020, 07:48 AM
Satoshi truly being identified and other such things that are thousands timed discussed here in Bitcointalk and have the probability ca 1:100 per year do not qualify even for the Black Swan toes... I am looking for much more interesting    Such as the following. Candidate no1 for the Black Swan competition: turns out that crypto is a comprehensive and symmetrical experiment. What I mean by "comprehensive" ? It is planned to absorb all the world assets - by now we have seen only an insignificant part of it. When the crypto experiment ends, it influences every human being with absolutely no exception. What I mean by "symmetrical" ? Its finish is planned to be symmetrical to its start. It will be finished in the same democratic/communist/Christian way (in most absurd way from the capitalist point of view) as it started. When crypto experiment started the crypto assets were distributed at the basis of the faith that the beginning of the crypto experiment is possible (not at the basis of capital: in 2009-2010 capital had no significance and later capital had a little significance) and when crypto experiment will be finished, the assets will be distributed at the basis of the faith that the ending of the crypto experiment is possible (not at the basis of crypto holdings). As the result of this "absurd" distribution method there will remain zero correlation between capital distribution before and after the crypto experiment (the cards are shuffled twice: firstly at the beginning and secondly at the end of the crypto experiment).
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