The Future Shapes Our Economy, Not the Past

I've been sitting on this shutdown situation for weeks, and it got me thinking about something that’s kinda unrelated to the shutdown itself. It’s more about how we perceive time in our economic systems. Like, the food pantry in Pennsylvania saw a 33% jump in demand even before the real crisis hit. People weren't reacting to actual hunger; they were worried about potential hunger. They were thinking ahead to a future that hadn’t even happened yet. This isn’t a new thing. We all do it. Every single day. You check your bank account not because you need cash right now, but to see if future-you will be okay. You stash away money for retirement not for the 67-year-old version of yourself who’s starving today, but to help a future person who doesn’t exist yet. Economics kinda feels like time travel in a way. The gap between now and later is getting smaller. There's this thing I call the pre-shock phenomenon: people start to feel the pain before the actual crisis hits. We’re always scanning the horizon for potential trouble. We all have these mental models running in our heads about what might go wrong. When enough of us catch the same vibe, we end up manifesting the very thing we’re afraid of. Money is just a shared story. The economy is a collective narrative. But unlike other narratives, like religions or nations, the economic narrative is super vulnerable to doubt from the collective.

Perhaps it's time, but if I correlate this with current market conditions, the market tends to take information into account, as evidenced by the behavior of market participants in executing their assets, either selling or buying before policy announcements or macro data releases, for example, about an hour later. My personal opinion is that all of this is based on the continued increase in government debt. Inflation is rising, and the needs of many ordinary people are no longer met by the current system, coupled with other pressures and inequalities, such as wages no longer being sufficient to offset the daily reality of too much false reality and too little real money. As for the pre-shock phenomenon, individuals begin to suffer even before a crisis occurs. This is a fact, and I believe it's normal behavior for everyone; self-management measures would be implemented immediately before a crisis actually occurs. In other situations, there may be no other choice, and relying solely on the government is impossible and will not produce results. They reason that they have wives and children to support, making their hopes increasingly fragile and lost. In this situation, they are driven by greed because they feel no one cares anymore. This allows for the rapid creation of power, sentiment, and the flow of information. What are the consequences? Self-fulfilling prophecies are increasing day by day, resulting in the phenomenon of modern major crises. I learned about the psychological impact of mass fear from my experience during the COVID pandemic, even though some people advise always being prepared and not panicking.

The US shutdown started October first and the month of October was bullish, until this sustains to this month we continue to have a fall in the market the more, some said it was as a result of the shutdown, some give other views that it was as a result of the fed cut rate and so on, yet we keep seeing more of dumping than the demand for the market, which have also contributed much on the fall, however, this new week may be a game changer completely, because of the confidence we have and trust in it.