Thoughts on these Bitcoin price forecasts? 2025 2030

I've been using four different techniques to project Bitcoin's price over the coming years. These include calculating the compound annual growth rate, running an exponential regression (where I can adjust how much weight I give to recent data), a method I call a temperature chart (basically a log trend chart with seven levels from Glacial to Cooking), and finally, a Monte Carlo simulator with some options. Here’s what I came up with when I averaged the predictions for mid-year 2025 to 2030. 2025 Great 524.9K 2025 OK 125.9K 2025 Awful 62.6K 2026 Great 976.3K 2026 OK 209.4K 2026 Awful 98.2K 2027 Great 2.0M 2027 OK 354.1K 2027 Awful 154.4K 2028 Great 3.6M 2028 OK 626.4K 2028 Awful 246.2K 2029 Great 6.3M 2029 OK 1.0M 2029 Awful 404.4K 2030 Great 15.5M 2030 OK 1.7M 2030 Awful 662.1K I’d love to hear what you think about the methods I used and the results I got. I'm always looking to make this better. You can check it out here.

What kind of feedback do you want? Speculation isn't an exact science. It'd be pretty wonderful if human action could be compressed in a bunch of equations and predict the future with total certainty, but unfortunately (or not), this world does not work like this. Wasn't there a S2F chart which was later on broken?

The predictions seem to be too favorable if you ask me, now as a bitcoin holder I would love for those predictions to be true, but we must remember that as bitcoin gets more expensive the more difficult it is for its price to go up, since unless there is a massive crisis on confidence about the fiat system currently in place, there is almost no way that bitcoin is going to reach the highest prediction on your model which is of 15.5 million dollars.

There is not so much money in the world. I think, about one million dollars (in nowadays purchasing power) per Bitcoin is the maximum price even in 2030 and even in 2130.

Although I believe that bitcoin will still always be in good progress but we also cannot assume that this will be a belief that in a certain year bitcoin will reach a certain price. It is indeed good if we look at predictions because it can make us quite sure that what we are doing in bitcoin is our version of the truth that must be done but in the end we must also realize that in the end this cannot be used as a benchmark because we need to remember that this is speculation which means there are only 2 possibilities between being right or not. I remember before the same price speculation in every year even in 2022 alone we always speculated that bitcoin will reach $100k in the near future but in the end the situation said a little more different although that doesn't mean I don't believe that $100k because in the end this will definitely happen in the future but what I want to emphasize is that we must have and think about all possibilities because being in bitcoin we are not only talking about the sweet things but the worst possibilities are also definitely there.

It looks you're not taking the volatility reduction into account but use a relatively simple exponential model, where Bitcoin grows a fixed percentage per year (at least the line in the log chart looks quite static). Slightly more realistic models like the "rainbow chart" or @virginorange's model here take into account that Bitcoin bull runs since 2011 have yielded less (percentual) growth each time, which is completely logical because increased liquidity is leading to decreased volatility. Also the bear markets are becoming less pronounced, much slower, but for the same reasons (liquidity). When looking at your model you still have 85-90+% crashes, but the recent trends hint to at most 80% between a high and the next low (last one was 76%, from 69000 to 15500). tl;dr: IMO this is both too optimistic (for the peaks) and too pessimistic (for the crashes). Basically it's Bitcoin's price behaving like in 2010-15 projected into the future.

I can't really provide much feedback because past price doesn't determine future price. Also, there no thesis or data to back your predictions other other than a semi-empty chart.   Now I even think about it — $15.5M for 1 BTC? As much as I'd really like Bitcoin price to gp up and the value of my bags to go up as well, I do think that if the price goes up too high, there would be very little buyers but a shit ton of short sellers.  But damn, your price predictions are insane.

so 2030 is around 5.5 years or so. the dollar may drop 25% in next 5.5 years so btc is pretty much certain to go up 30% or 91000 So 91000 is pretty good for the bottom not your number at all. toss in the ½ effect and the 91k shifts to 182k so my lowest is 182k the highest is the real question if we catch gold we go to 650k so my numbers are 182k to 650k = likely 120k to 2 million less likely.

considering the inflation and the fact that bitcoin supply is capped while some bitcoin is also lost as the time goes, I guess it's possible, this dream of BTC reaching million dollar price isn't far fetched but I think there is also a limit, BTC might hit its limit when the market cap is nearing gold, in my opinion, from that time, BTC price will be stable, and probably the bullrun and bearish season will be no more but just overall stable price with a little bit of volatility. as other have stated, there's only limited money in this world, still can't think about a scenario where people just decide to ditch other investment and move all their investment to BTC, that's highly unlikely. but if it's just the price going up while circulating supply going down it's possible.

Uhm, isn'tt he great levels a bit too optimistic? Not to mention that it ignores the fact that Bitcoin growth for every year drastically decreases in terms of percentage. E.g, a 1000%+ increase would've been viable back in the past, but now? You'd be lucky to see 100%. And I reckon it's only going to continuously decrease for the later years. I honestly don't think we'd be going above 150k-200k even by the end of 2030. Wouldn't be surprised if we're actually going through the same cycle (20k - 70k) for 2027-2028 time.

This does not factor in the rapid growth that will be coming into Bitcoin because of the possibilities of Bitcoin Defi that is already warming up the heard.

Thanks for the feedback. Well, I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin some day took the place of the USD and became the world reserve currency. At that point though, the model would probably still predict the prices to rise at the same speed - which I don't think would be very likely. But then, if the price slacks off for a year or two, the model should take the new growth trend into consideration. The less data the model has and the further out the prices are projected - the less accurate they are. And by the way, the Great, OK, and Awful are different calculated potential outcomes, it doesn't mean that all 3 are likely to happen the same year. Just to clarify that as I didn't earlier. And the OK projection is more likely than than the other two. Yeah, they might be too optimistic, I will do some thinking. In 2027, 2028 these charts show it's very unlikely we're not at at least somewhere around $200k - $300k. I don't see Bitcoin breaking the trend that hard and stay stale for so long. If we do see 20k or even 70k in 27 or 28 I think that would be a massive opportunity. I am not sure if I should introduce the volatility falling off over time. Mainly because this projection model is not only for Bitcoin, but something that can be used on all assets. Assets with more historical data like, for instance, Gold and Nasdaq100, don't show volatility falling off over time when going back about 30 years even. Bitcoin is in a special position though as it was just invented a short while ago.

Looking at the forecasts for 2025, which is the one we have closest, $524.9k wouldn't be bad at all, $125k is more accurate and it's likely to happen faster, personally I think these things could result in a good approach, of course the 4-year cycle is always fulfilled, at least I have seen that behavior in bitcoin, it would be very bad if it were not fulfilled by 2025, it is something that is almost certain to happen, it is something like the stock market where it is fulfilled that every 8-10 years the market gives a good result, generally bullish and that is when the biggest investors like Warren Buffett become millionaires.