Trump's chaotic foreign policies and their impact on markets

Let's take a step back and view the current economic and geopolitical turmoil in the world from a new angle. Maybe we can tackle questions like: * How high will gold and silver prices climb? When will they drop or crash? * What’s in store for bitcoin? * Will interest rates go down or up? * What’s happening with inflation and the potential recession? With the US government abusing its power and becoming increasingly authoritarian, using everything from dollar manipulation to coercing international organizations like the UN and IMF against other nations, their reign as a superpower was pretty short-lived (around 20 years of unipolar dominance). But power can be an addiction. A lot of countries are moving away from them, trying to establish some order after decades of chaos while the US clings to its power. Their approach seems to be to create even more chaos, thinking they can gain from it, even though it’s blowing up in their faces, like how now the Yuan is being used in more than half of international trade instead of the dollar. We can see the mess the US is stirring up everywhere, from its neighbors like Canada and Mexico to far-off nations like Russia and China. The

Wow, I have read through your post, it’s a well written and detailed analysis, you must have done your research and have a good understanding of the complicated or complex relationship between global politics and economics. I know for a fact that the US has been and is trying to be the only dominant World power, and Trump has always said he’s here to “make America great again”. The recent crisis with China, I think he wasn’t expecting that reaction and that’s why he was eager to make peace. I have read some things from your post that I probably did not know about, I’m gonna do my own findings on that. I really appreciate how you broke down the possible motives of the US regime’s action and their potential consequences. Global economic crisis or wars have a way of affecting bitcoin and other commodities in the global market but I see you have a strong conviction bitcoin will continue to do well. What do you think or believe will drive the price of bitcoin in the coming months?

Your thoughts are well understood and relatable, great writeup! In as much as your idea here is valid I feel there are also some misconceptions. The US market cannot be underestimated since it accounts roughly upto 13  to 16 percent of global GDP and also US has over 330 million consumers with high purchasing power as compared to third world countries which are basically associated with China and BRICS. Ofcourse China's economy is export driven and US has been one of its biggest destination for many years now, so let's face it, this tariff also affects the demand for for Chinese products which will in turn affect Chinese manufacturers too and their economy as well. The unjustified invasion and bombardments of sovereign states by the US regime is no longer something new. First, they would come up with a propaganda against the nation they intend to invade through their well established media (CNN, etc). A living evidence of these unjustified actions by the US government can be seen very clearly in Lybia, they claimed a regime change in Lybia will help the country, labeling their leader as a terrorist and I ask my self what is the state of Lybia today as compared to the time before US claimed intervention? Today Lybia is in mess all thanks to US government. Although I am not an expert in economics but it is crystal clear that the price of gold/silver will keep going up until until this power tussle issue is addressed, how to address this I don't know. What will happen to bitcoin? I guess it will take side with gold and silver in the nearest future as an undeniable store of value.

I think the issue with Venezuela is Russia related. Venezuela has large oil reserves, but very low production. If Maduro regime is taken down, they can increase production and take down oil prices, which is directly affect russia (which it's economy is heavily dependent in oil exports) This might give them some trouble, and also establish theusa presence in South America

One of the things in history that Britain probably regrets most is inviting the US into the European war. Controlled chaos must be maintained to maintain its hegemonic position, ensuring global dependence, and maintaining its currency as a safe haven (global investors move money to the US because the dollar and Treasury bonds are considered the safest). Capital flows into the US, a strong dollar maintains hegemony, and wars finance US debt without collapse. Ultimately, their interventions in other parts of the world gain legitimacy. The driving force of capitalism is sustainable growth; when the economic cycle overheats, war, sanctions, and geopolitical instability become the exit doors. War is a massive economic stimulus, driving military state spending, which is ultimately absorbed by heavy industry, steel, and logistics, and absorbs labor. Total peace is not a profitable business for the US. Without war, the debt- and arms-based economic system will lose its fuel, as 20–25% of US GDP directly and indirectly depends on the defense sector and military technology. Conflict with neighboring countries, especially those on one's home turf, is a common occurrence in international geopolitics and geostrategy, as maintaining borders is crucial for national preservation and security. Through conflict, a country demonstrates its dominance by indirectly demonstrating its bargaining power. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the US QE (exported inflation) policy changed perceptions of China and Russia, and both countries began to consider reducing their dependence on the dollar for foreign exchange reserves and trade. The United States, as the trigger for the cycle of instability, created a crisis of confidence, to which China and Russia responded by laying new foundations and creating alternative monetary structures. The rise in gold and Bitcoin prices was not due to a single factor, but rather a combination of short-term triggers (US foreign policy) and long-term fundamentals (gold purchases and dedollarization by China and Russia). When the two major world powers hoarded gold, global investors read the signal that China and Russia were preparing for global monetary restructuring, and other investors also flocked to gold and Bitcoin to protect their assets. As a result, the prices of these two assets soared even faster. Early in its history, gold was also speculative and contested, but it wasn't until hundreds of years later that it became a stable and universally trusted foundation of value. Speculation is a symptom of the old economy that hasn't died yet, illustrating that markets are dominated by speculation, not monetary functions, and demonstrating a lack of long-term collective faith in Bitcoin's value. FOMO is the cycle of greed in financial capitalism that drives speculation devoid of fundamental value. For Bitcoin's volatility to structurally decrease, FOMO must first be destroyed, allowing for the reconstruction of new value (Faith in Holding On). This occurs when the global economic community begins to view Bitcoin not as an investment instrument but as a neutral, censorship-resistant alternative economic protocol, or when Bitcoin ownership becomes a form of financial sovereignty, not simply an investment. Civilization doesn't change because of technology, but because the way humans perceive value changes. Bitcoin has the potential to become a symbol of stability in the digital age, not because of its rising price, but because of the growing public trust in it. If this signal is read, it means Bitcoin has become a global value infrastructure through a phase of value consolidation and volatility resistance.

Basically its past performance. Bitcoin has proven to be a very good "asset" that can appreciate in the long run. We can see that clearly when we "zoom out" on the price charts. But it has also shown that it reacts negatively to the news in the short term. Take 2020 for example and the global pandemic that caused a global recession. Bitcoin initially crashed about 60% but in roughly 2 months it started recovering and by January 2021 it set a new record and had gone up 1000% from that crash-bottom. Similar thing during 2022 with Russian invasion of Ukraine and the start of proxy war between East and West and the follow up crisis in global economy, supply chain, energy and food markets. We are already seeing some signs in other markets this week; like oil which has gone up 8% in the past week heading toward $70 again ever since tensions in the Caribbean Sea grew to a new high. That's right. This is why I use the term "war" to describe it. In any war (proxy war, economic war, cold war, armed conflict, ...) both sides will be hurt. The amount of damage depends on each side's capabilities, allies, and a lot of other factors. In this economic war China would also be hurt but in my opinion the difference is that US is isolating itself while China is expanding its relations (namely BRICS and SCO), so the damage China has to endure will be less. Controlling the global supply and price of fuel is definitely one of their main objectives. But the main target is not Russia, it is China. They used similar strategies during WW2 and WW1 as well. It is worth pointing out that in both wars the barbaric colonizers invaded oil rich Iran and killed over 9 million Iranians just to take over their natural resources and to take control of the strategic geography of Iran (controlling the "Rimland"). Today China imports about 11 barrels of oil per day. Roughly 4.5 million bpd comes from Russia (2 mil), Iran (2 mil) and Venezuela (0.5 mil) and 3.5 million bpd comes from Arab dictators who fully obey US regime orders and 1.6 million bpd comes from occupied Iraq that can halt if the occupiers (US mostly) decide to stop it. That's almost 90% of the oil China imports, if US regime manages to significantly lower that, it would destroy Chinese economy without US having to shoot a single bullet at China directly! Now look at the 3 major conflicts US regime has started. - Russian energy infrastructure is being hit at large scale now. - They tried attacking Iran and repeat the WW2 experience (occupation in only 2 days!) but failed miserably in 2 days then instead Iran heavily bombed them for 13 days - They are trying to take control of Venezuela P.S. This last one could be another miserable failure though. What I'm seeing from outside, is that the armed forces of Venezuela is very ready to crush the US aggression and can also deal a lot of damage to the US regime's war machine. The population has gotten ready as well. We've seen mass volunteering by regular people to receive basic military training in order to participate in the "National Defense" (basically protecting their home from a bloodthirsty foreign invader). We could also see what was exercised in reality very soon...

Maduro regime is highly unpopular.  Nobody in the country wants him there Certainly there are no volunteers and it is very like that people are cheering for the US or anyone to take Maduro down. There are many refugees from Venezuela in Brazil since the 2010s, and they just hate what he is doing there... He is losing elections for like 10 years , but he just fake the results and kill the opposition.  People live in poverty there, and it was one of the richest states in the continent about 30 years ago. Maduro is just an ignorant dictator thay destroyed the country's economy and is working with drug cartels.

I think you give Trump and his administration too much credit. Looking at how they have been operating, I don't think they can sit down and mastermind an economic war and create chaos in a way that can benefit them. They are simply people who make decisions from their asses and never take accountability or responsibility for the mess they create. Since somebody has to be blamed, they point fingers at the most obvious culprits, which are immigrants, China and Russia. The tariff increase was something he said he would do even before he became president, but as myopic as Trump is, he couldn't see the repercussions of that policy. It is not a grand scheme; they're simply just stupid and bad at governing. Remember, before they got into power, they blamed the Democrats for everything, but now that they're in power, they blame everyone else but themselves and that everyone else includes but is not limited to, Immigrants, China and Russia. It will backfire because of two things. The support and military presence of China and Russia. I read that Chinese and Russian personnel are already in Venezuela. The second thing is that, usually, when the US invade a country for their benefit, they always have a good excuse to invade, a lie they tell people while going there for something else, but in this case, they don't have a qualified reason. Another reason to prove how they lack high intelligence. The Trump-led "Department of War" couldn't come up with an excuse for why they're invading a country like other American administrations have done. The excuse they come up with is that they are a drug-led administration that brings most of the drugs in America. But the fact shows that most of the illegal drugs in the United States come from Mexico and not Venezuela. I doubt Venezuela is among the top 5 countries that drugs in the US come from, I believe Mexico and Colmbia tops that list. In times like this, it's the average people who suffer. The big corporations benefit from this. For example, those in the Oil and gas sector. These are products that people cant live without, so no matter how expensive they get, people still buy them, and this gives these companies more profit. It is a bit complicated I don't think it's true that more than half of international trade is  done with the Yuan. The dollar still dominates massively in that aspect. The Yuan is not even among the top 3 most traded currencies.

I'm not a Venezuelan so I can't verify this and it is not the subject here (since it doesn't change anything really) but I know for a fact that this is what US regime says about any country that resists their invasion. Not to mention that the economy of Venezuela is mostly hurt due to US regime's decades of economic terrorism. And the drug cartels you pointed out are mostly in Colombia and Ecuador (I believe only 2% of them are in Venezuela) and majority of them work under CIA supervision not the local governments as a covert and filthy revenue for the US regime. The footage that has come out shows the opposite. These are volunteers who are learning basic military training such as working with air defense cannons and how to use shoulder-launched air-to-surface missiles (MANPADS). As for what people think, I see a division. Usually the wealthy ones are against Maduro and want a US invasion and destruction of Venezuela and for some reason they see their benefit in a US occupation. These are the loud minority. Venezuela is not the first country to have such brainwashed people The others are the middle and lower class that are supporting Maduro and these are the ones that vote for him and not for the US backed sockpuppet the US regime has been trying to install in Venezuela to steal its resources without a military intervention. The 8 million people who volunteered for the "Bolivarian National Militia" are part of this group. The reason why I use the term "US Regime" is because of that. Trump is just the face of the regime not exactly the decision maker. And the Tariff War started in Obama days not in Trump's, it is just intensifying in his second term because of the global situation and the downfall of US hegemony and Trump is just making a lot of noise about it whereas others did it in silence. I think before that there is another reason that is more important. US military is actually quite weak. It's just too big and too expensive and so loud. Otherwise it has not won even a single war since WW2 and WW2 was mostly won by the Russians not the US, they were just on the winning side! Anything they've won like WW3 (commonly known as The Cold War) was not won by their military, but instead by their spy service that practically infiltrated and destroyed their opponent from inside.

Man, if you cant verify that the Venezuela is destroyed because of their own decisions , I am sorry but you are really misinformed about their situation. Venezuela has the one of the largest oil reserves in the world. The people live in poverty for decades. Not even Lula is defending Maduro anymore (and he did a lot in the past) The country collapsed from inside. This is a fact. Their situation has nothing to do with US From wikipedia: People who have any decent social condition are just moving to other countries,  mainly to Brazil. I know lots of people from Venezuela,  they are coming since the 2010s

What is well written on: To understand global politics it helps to be free of ideology.

Venezuelan here. Most of those people are being told by the government they are going to lose their social benefits and their jobs if they don't participate in those exercises. I have very close contact with people who work within public institutions and they are pretty much forced to pose with weapons in order to keep the president and the minister of defense happy and give media the façade of popular support, when nobody is taking pictures at them they come to me and tell me how incompetent and corrupt the government is, and how they wished to have a change of administration. That is fact, nobody told me about it I have experienced it myself and I have myself listened to them lamenting how they are being pushed to hold weapons they don't even want to touch.

I do not see the good that US invading Venezuela would do it in any way, it wouldn't be any better than the mess that British puts my country in until this day even after claiming we got independence for 65 years now. America literally is after Venezuelan oil reserves and not having their interest at heart at all since that's what they always do, find a propaganda to spread and invade a country and try to steal their natural resources. The rich puppets supporting them are those who would be enriched in the aftermath of the invasion, it happens everywhere so I'm not surprised. On the path of Venezuelan government, I'm very disappointed that after 214 years they gained independence from Spain there's still persistent poverty ravaging their country with their wealth of over 303 billion barrels oil reserves, is a shame though and is obvious the government aren't doing well but I'll be the last person to trust the US to help them fix anything. They need a change of government, yes but not one orchestrated by the US, let them handle it internally as a nation.

Okay. Tell me this, can Venezuela export its vast supply of oil to other countries in the world at any amount they wish to and get the money to help their economy? Why can't they? Can they attract foreign investors to help their economy, build industries, create jobs and battle unemployment? Why can't they? Can they hire foreign companies to come in and fix their electric network that the US regime destroyed when they pulled out? Why can't they? Can they hire foreign companies to come in and help them re-build their refineries to produce gas (fuel) for their transport system and get out of the fuel crisis? Why can't they? The answer to all that is that their country is under US sanctions aka economic terrorism. Is Venezuela "destroyed" as you put it, because of their own decisions? Well, to some extent yes. But you can't deny the decades of economic terrorism carried out by the US regime against Venezuelan people. With the way things are going, I guess we will soon find out how accurate our speculations were. But if the stuff you said here are true and if history is any indication, and if the US regime invades then very soon between 1 to 5 million of you are going to be slaughtered by the invaders. I'm sad to say that you may not be around to tell us what's happening either (assuming you actually live in Venezuela)... That is what we all watched happen to our neighbor, Iraq. That was based on a lie too to get their oil... a million Iraqis slaughtered. Millions more are still suffering the consequences of Western Barbarism like the birth defects and various health problems people suffer from which are all the result of usage of nuclear munitions against the Iraqi people. P.S. I have to say this since we are derailed a little bit. If the president of Venezuela were the best president of all time in the whole world or if he were the worst dictator humanity has ever seen, it would not change a single thing I said in this analysis about US regime's wars of destabilization and its desperation for oil and its reason to invade Venezuela and everything else. The only thing it would change is the last part about "backfiring" and only its scale not the whole thing. Remember back in early 2000 when US invaded Iraq, US regime used to be the so called hyperpower and without $38 trillion debt. There were no BRICS, no SCO, no dedollarisation, no Petroa-Yuan, ... They failed to "conquer" Iraq and that was with a coalition of over 50 countries. To this day they do occupy some bases in Iraq but they do not dare get out of their bases without being blown up. And the time between their existence and being literally deleted is a matter of hours if the Iraqi Resistance decides to wipe them out. Their wasting of $12 trillion in West Asia is the reason why China is now looking at US in the mirror and is now so far ahead. So yes I still say there is enough reason to believe invading Venezuela is going to backfire for this rogue regime.

They cant because they destroyed PDVSA (their state owned company) due to mismanagement. They make PDVSA pay for free food, free electricity, etc... They forced highly specialized enginneers  to work for like 200 USD per moonth so they moved away, etc. If you lived there, you would probably had already moved to other country. Venezuela even exports oil to Russia and china. They don`t export more because they are incompetent. You might not understand this , because you probably live in a developed country where everything works. But a bad goverment can really destroy the country`s economy and companies. You can just confirm with chatgpt They can atract, but they cant force foreign investors to invest there. How will you force people to invest in a country? Investors don`t go there because Venezuela do not respect contracts. Maduro seized fabrics, industries, he literally stole from thousands of companies. This is why foreign investors do not invest there. Nationalized = Seized. Why don`t you invest in Venezuela? You are free to do so. Buy their stocks. You can just ask Chatgpt about it if you don`t believe... Venezuela isn`t under US sanctions for decades. This is very recently, mostly because they are selling oil to Russia. I am sorry, but you are not aware of Venezuela situation. You have very strong opinions on subjects you researched very little about. I follow it for more than a decade, it has a huge impact in my country and in people I know. I can assure you that almost nobody in this continent shares your opinion. Even far left individuals from Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela condeem maduro for his actions, not the US. You probably never met anyone from venezuela, you are reading news about it just recently. Maduro is a criminal, dictator and very ignorant individual. he hunted and killed basically all political opposition. He was a truck driver before becoming the dictator, he isn`t fighting for freedom or lower classes, he is killing his population to become rich and powerful.

We are not discussing Maduro here though. We are discussing global energy war that the US regime started to save its empire, actions that are going to destabilize and damage the global economy. Rulers like Maduro are the product of a "situation" which I'm not going to get into because it will derail the topic further. ChatGPT is not a reliable source my friend. Look at its references, they are all directly or indirectly Western mouthpieces that are justifying the economic terrorism. And by the way the earliest US sanctions on Venezuela I can think of is from early 2000 and it was very similar to the excuse they used for Iraq in the same years meaning WMDs! That was a massive economic embargo and asset seizure (they basically stole billions of dollars of the money that belonged to Venezuelans).

If nobody wanted Maduro, then surely the coup attempt during Trump’s first term would have been more successful. It was horribly botched, precisely because they didn’t have the support inside the country they thought they would. This time around, they are taking direct action instead of relying on opposition within. You don’t have to rely on information from dubious sources like Wikipedia and ChatGPT. You could get the facts straight from the horse’s mouth. Former U.S. government officials who served under Trump have placed the blame for economic collapse and the migration crisis on U.S. imposed sanctions. “This is the point I made at the time: I said the sanctions were going to grind the Venezuelan economy into dust and have huge human consequences, one of which would be out-migration,” said Thomas Shannon, who served as undersecretary for political affairs at the State Department under President Donald Trump. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/07/26/venezuela-crisis-immigration-us-sanctions-trump/ Ironically, under Trump, Venezuela was sanctioned specifically for human rights abuses, extrajudicial killings and corruption. These are all things Trump himself is guilty of so they have to pivot to drug trafficking. Venezuela might have had poverty, inflation, and migration, like many other countries, but it’s crystal clear that U.S. sanctions had the intended effect of making things significantly worse in order to force regime change. Venezuela is a sovereign country and can trade with whomever it wants. The U.S. has also been trying to get rid of Putin for a long time. It’s very flawed and circular logic to say the country whose economy we are destroying isn’t allowed to trade with the country we fomented a proxy war with and whose economy we are also trying to destroy. Once the U.S. achieves their objectives, assuming they actually do, these sanctions which have no credible justification, will magically disappear, like they did in Syria after they installed their ISIS puppet.

Venezuela cannot attract serious Investment from abroad due to the lack of independent judiciary among any other stately body. After the fruitless expropiese or nationalizing them campaign only a few have invested in Venezuela. All privately owned electric companies in Venezuela had were expropriated or nationalized: https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/15135/ and https://www.reuters.com/article/world/factbox-venezuelas-nationalizations-under-chavez-idUSBRE89701X/ No company not being a buddy company would dare, the guarantees the government gave last year have little value. Venezuela certainly tried, but IMHO have little clue how to solve their dilema. For the buddy industry everything is sweet and rosy. Venezuela has no statistical data, all intents to fetch those have been disarmed by other, mostly ideological, priorities     The ZEE created like the special economic zones of China. Just without funding, without investment into infrastructure.

This is true, but an invasion by the US of Venezuela won't change anything. This is just history repeating itself. The US will pick a country that is in crisis from within already, and show the world how bad the country is and promise to restore it and put it in order, only to go in and make things worse. Many other countries are ruled by criminals, and their economy is as bad as Venezuela's or even worse. Why has the US not gone there to restore democracy? The US cant be blamed for the current state of the country, but denying the role neocolonialism played in the state of Venezuela today is just one-sided.

all I can say is that many people and companies later will be shamed for bowing to Trump and trying to please him. this is especially true for those who donated large sums to his whims including crypto companies. but all this will only happen when Trump is no longer president and when it will happen nobody knows yet.