Hey everyone
I've dug into Bitcoin's price history, and honestly, it looks like it can be split into two pretty distinct eras: A) the first five years (from 2009 to the end of 2013) and B) the years since (from early 2014 to now).
Here's what I noticed about the first era:
1) Prices skyrocketed like an average of around 1500% each year. A dollar turned into a million over those five years.
2) HODLing was definitely a winner compared to trading.
3) Just mentioning the word BITCOIN had serious financial weight (like, if you said BITCOIN, people knew it meant big bucks);
Now, the second era is a whole different story:
1) Price increases have been way more modest, about 50% on average per year. A dollar became a hundred bucks over eleven years.
2) Trading has outperformed HODLing.
3) Almost everyone knows about BITCOIN now; it hit the mainstream media hard at the tail end of 2013.
What do you all think?
Is December 2013 just another local peak like June 2011, December 2017, or January 2021?
Was December 2013 a big deal for Bitcoin Prices?
4 replies 65 views
hodler2019Legendary
Posts: 2182 · Reputation: 12913
#2Jul 4, 2024, 12:55 AM
trading in the second half is not better than hodling
but if you do quarters .
say day 1 2009 to 2013 nov peak. 100000x
than jan 2014 drop to 2017 dec peak 170x
than dec 2018 to 2021 peak 16x
than April 2021 crash to now 3x
the last quarter trading may be better
Ok, for 2014-2025 it is disputable, it is not clear.
day 1 2009 to 2013 nov peak. 1000000x, not 100000x
jan 2014 drop to 2017 dec peak 17x, not 170x
it is big difference ... 2014 seems to be much more similar to 2025 than to 2012
I think for me 2017 was the peak and when bitcoin started increasing in value and price. I think it grew from slightly above $1,000 to then ATH above $20,000 in December. And in 2021 when China banned Bitcoin mining and trading.
And I think these were the days of fear around bitcoin, the skeptism era of the long term value, and the bubble stories from warren buffet and the media etc.
Price increases from Jan 2009 to Dec 2017 was 10 000 000 x (or 500% per year on average).
Price increases from Jan 2018 to Apr 2025 was 8 x (or 35% per year on average).
500% vs 35% is not that different than 1500% vs 50%
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