Was the $73k spike a bear trap?

A friend of mine hit me up a few days ago saying Bitcoin shot up to 73k and is now heading for 80k. He was all hyped, wanting to buy in. I just chuckled and told him to chill out because I don't think we're seeing 80k anytime soon. He was adamant that the market breaking out from 70 to 73 means we're definitely going to 80k and that the bear market is done. I suggested he sell some of what he had and lock in profits at 73k, then wait for a dip to grab it cheaper. He was convinced we won’t see 60k again, but I told him to just relax and keep an eye on the market. Right now, as I type this, Bitcoin is sitting at 67k after that spike from 73k. If you were in this situation, would you sell at 73k and then buy back at the current price?

Bitcoin price rose to $126k and from there it fell to $67k. Isn't this bear season? What price do you expect during the bear season? It is not new that Bitcoin price sees such ups and downs when there is a big correction. However, Bitcoin price will not fall much from the position it is in now. So no matter how volatile the price is, if you are planning a long-term investment, you should do DCA now. Then you can take advantage of the entire bear season.

Bitcoin lives in four-year cycles that seem to be well respected, even though its history is short. We now pretty much agree that we have entered a bear market which means that for at least two years the movements will be as follows: we will rise by 10k and fall by 10k. The cycles also say that the bottom of the new cycle is the ATH of the previous cycle so there are good reason to stay in this price range.

Wrong  title , it should  be "bull trap " not "bear trap". It's one things to worry about when you choose trading over peace of mind which is HODLing . You could still be wrong because there was actually  a break out which was supposed  to indicate a strong  upward movement so your friend's statement  is also understandable.   But, for it to be a trap it has to look like a break out  normally . Your advice could also be wrong and also expose you to blame if the market trully breakout and went up to 80k+.

I don't know if the price of Bitcoin is going to reach $75k and more but  from what I am seeing from the chart, that price zone is a bear trap which had been happening before now. Anyone buying Bitcoin at that price must be taking a huge risk that needed to be crossed check to prevent buy too high when the price of Bitcoin will come down soon. There is no sign of a bull continuation so we don't have to feel like the price of Bitcoin may starts going bull in no time.

I probably wouldn't have sold at that rate because my thought is thinking of waiting for more price increases. And that's why if I decided to buy now, it's not because I've made a quick profit from that point because I'll still hold. But, I'll still probably buy if I have some money that's a spare to me and that's the usual scenario that we're dealing with. Spending some spare money when we like to buy additional Bitcoin because that won't hurt us financially and at the same time, we've got added more BTC to our stashes.

First question is actually about your friends timing of the market why is he buying while the market is actually about to go up according to his own analysis is he trying to FOMO like we have seen many others do most especially short time holders? I think that’s really a bad strategy in my opinion. Yes the bitcoin market is actually going to be testing the levels below $70k again because what we had wasn’t just a pump due to market conditions like high demand then but was also as a result of the fall of the US dollar too which isn’t a good long term sign as such the pump was more of a trap than a good pump. But regardless with time we will get back to those $80k again. If I were your friend i won’t be selling at $73k and buying back now because I am long term investor and not going to be Chasing short term gains like your friend

It's definitely hard to predict the market situation, and nobody knows where the price will head, whether it will go down or up.  I know how it feels to be FOMOed because I'm the one who experienced that before when I was new to crypto.  The pain of missing out feels greater than the joy of a later, smaller gain.  We fear looking back and thinking, "I knew it would go up, I should have bought." Just tell your friend to practice a DCA method of buying Bitcoin with an amount that he can afford to wait for.  Not watching the market for a short time, which makes one prone to FOMO, DCA can be applied by investing smaller amounts at regular intervals to reduce the impact of timing.

You are referring to a bull trap and yes it can be considered as bull trap since the price suddenly collapsed when it hits above 70K+. The price is now @67K and seems like already slowdown to dip. It might retest again above 70K if the price manage to stay close to the resistance. Bull trap and bear trap is very common in crypto since many are trading in short term with those resistance and support for a quick profit especially now that we are indecision phase. FOMO buy is classical newbie mistake while there’s always a chance to buy at low price when Bitcoin dip instead of waiting to pump.

Now talk with him again, and say in front of his face "WHAT NOW!!!!" Kidding aside, if investors are looking at that small pump as something that will push the price of Bitcoin to around $80,000 then there's a problem with them. Probably they're newbies and don't know how the market moves. If there are somebody who says that the bear market is over when we're just only 5 months in it then there's a huge chance that they're wrong. The bear market is over? I wonder what your friend is saying now. You know what OP? Some people tend to be like this where they don't want to accept the negative side of things and they only enforce to their mind that Bitcoin will pump, Bitcoin will go up in price, the bear market is over, and so on and so forth, and TBH, we can't blame them if they think like that, but as somebody that has more knowledge about price movement, we should educate them as well. I have Bitcoins ready to sell when Bitcoin went to $73,000-$74,000, but I decided not to sell because... I don't have plans of doing it. I'm not swing trading Bitcoin on spot market anyway so... yeah.

Nobody would know it's a bear trap until the price suddenly dumping but from the chart it's a high chance that the 73k rally that happened recently is a bear trap. It's actually pretty obvious, after such a huge dump, price going up a little bit is usually only to chase after fair value gap on the higher price zone and go back again. For a sustaining rally usually it needs more time for consolidation, at least until there is less people shorting.

I sell at $73k and wait for the time to buy back. The price is at $66k and still down, I guess so we have much time to buy back at this price or still waiting. Your friend have his decision so let he do what he want. You can't interfere his decision and could makes argue with him. Just wait for what he will tells you and when he will buy. Who knows the price will go back to within $60k since we don't know for sure. Why we have different plan on our Bitcoin investment. So $73k is a time to take profit and wait for the next down to buy back.

It is good to know that bitcoin increased above $73000 to $74000 recently before falling back below $70000 and then to $67000. Do not discourage your friend from buying, he can DCA instead which is one of the most effective ways of buying bitcoin during bear market. Some people will say they will buy bitcoin but they will later not buy it after several procrastinate. But if you think it is a bear trap? Yes, that is true, it is a bear trap. This can be seen during bear market.

It takes extra-mile to really understand how the space works because when you think is going higher then it goes the other way round where you wouldn't know whether the price gonna drop or high. To honest, what most people do not know about bitcoin is that, now that we are in bear market it could be hard for the market to break out and move straight to bull run till unless it has completed this phase of market season, and where should we be targeting at? Of course we should be doing DCA and ready for the bear to be over so that everyone can solely enjoy the free ride of bull market.

It is quite possible that if you follow analysts, you will notice that many of them talk about patterns similar to the bear market in 2022, when there was a similar rebound and then the significant decline continued. I think that since the bear market is not over yet, something similar may be waiting for us now. But I also think that the rebound could have been bigger, or the sideways movement could last longer.

The entire system seems a kind of difficult sometimes to comprehend but it is usually what we know reoccuring but in way that seems a bit confusing to us, but the thing is, there's nothing different from how it use to be before, Bitcoin is a volatile asset, we should expect fluntuations at any moment, although for the past few months it has always been hitting $70k and dropping back to $60k+ which is between the range of the price I wrote to $69k and there about, short-term invetsors shouldn't be complaining much this time because the movement of Bitcoin this time has favoured them more, just imagine when Bitcoin will drop to $64 or lower and bounce back to $69 or even $70k+, we know what that means in the Bitcoin settings. You're right, DCA method is what we should be using now to buy as much as we can, we can not be watching the market just like that with the mind of confusion, lets buy because we may not know what's coming next.

I guess do you mean is a bull trap because the market goes up but instead it fluctuate and gets back on the price of 60k. Now that happens because of the current happenings on the world so it affects too and also we have a support key level from the 70k area which is the 71-72k and if the candle in that time frame from that day surpass is hold and make another open of the market for a green candle there is a confirmation that we might arise again with the 80k but instead this takes another retest instead we are now sitting again from the dip of 66-68k price of the bitcoin which is another market sideways now for the confirmation?, no signal yet we will waiting for this Monday on opening of the institutions.

Yeah, why not. People do it. I mean, the short-term traders or profit takers make use of the market movement to maximize profit. So if I had a hint the market would take a dip, I would sell at $73k and buyback at $67k. About your friend. He has exhibited naivety about the market. As such, it would be best if he took some time to learn about Bitcoin and trading, or he should just focus mainly on stacking long-term.

A lot of people have already corrected you, but you know it's a bull trap, right? There are a lot of things to talk about here, but the main factor is the exchange inflows/outflows and whale accumulation. Most of the time, if whales are dumping, the market will dump, and the others will follow. It's a reactive type of effect: seeing the market go down a little, and then it goes down as well. There should be indicators for these things and be checked everytime it shows up in the charts.

I will not sell at the current price. I also do not yet have an urgent need to be a reason to sell Bitcoin at the current price.  I am curious about how your friend responded after seeing Bitcoin drop again. If he has already entered, he may need to be patient with a long-term plan to avoid losses.  We have not yet exited the bearish market, we must be patient and more careful if we want to determine a buying position. Some people may not care about the current price because of their long-term plans. But those who want to buy at a better price may consider some possibilities that the price could drop further.