what if the bull run gets pushed to 2026 instead of 2025

This thread was inspired by franky1's post, so if you’ve checked that out, you’ll catch my vibe and what I’m trying to bring up here. If we were to do a poll, I bet a lot of people are still counting on one last bull run before the bears take over, with hopes aimed at the end of 2025 or so. Even after hitting that $109k ATH, folks are still looking at historical patterns from past bitcoin bull runs for guidance. But looking at the current state of the global economy, plus the tariff wars that have really messed with the financial market, things don’t seem too bright. And then there’s Trump, who keeps throwing out economic policies that feel more like a market drag than a boost. He’s not showing any signs of slowing down with new policies this year, and we’re left guessing what they might do to the market. Do you really think we’ll see the history of bull runs happen again? And if we don’t hit a new ATH by the end of 2025, would you still be holding out hope for 2026? What do you think?

The market situation will certainly be influenced by the global economy. What is happening and what we see now could and probably will affect market sentiment. But as you can see, we still have enough time this year that makes us optimistic that the Bull run cycle prediction will still occur this year. The decline that we have seen several times may have given us an idea of ​​where we are in the transition of the market trend from bull to bear. But finally, we saw several recoveries that occurred in a short time after the decline, and that will build optimism once again that we are not finished for this year. We will wait and see what will happen in the market as the end of the year approaches. Maybe you are also right that what we are waiting for could happen next year.

Look, going off historical trends seems nice and all, but let's be real - the past doesn't always predict the future, you know?  I mean you've got inflation, geopolitical chaos, and whatever Trump's doing this week. When the worlds on fire like it is now, those so-called historical trends pretty much get tossed out the window.  So I'm cautiously optimistic, but certainly not betting the farm.  Too much weird sh*t going on right now.

I am expecting to do the same thing, 2 cycles that I was in and saw the same thing, so for the third time, I'd believe that we'd expect and see the same thing. But if the time comes and there's a delay, I'll wait patiently, and that's fine. Yes, the cycles can change as well, but if it's just a delay it won't be a problem to me. I'll be willing to wait for it to come but those who are saying that they're waiting for it but don't have a plan, then it's better to expect nothing then. The supercycles that we've been are changing and they are becoming better if this pattern continues.

The fact that it’s beyond our control, so we don’t have other choice but to patiently wait for it. It’s not that history will always repeat itself, there’s no guarantee with that. Sometimes, the market takes new pattern, so we just need to be cautious on our actions so that we won’t be regretting in the end. Things are actually unpredictable especially that this crypto market is highly volatile. We need to stay patient and hold, and if there’s new opportunity to add more bitcoin, then buy and hold, and then sell when the final bull run is here.

A government’s policies can change at any time and this can trigger the market to move in any direction. Economic wars are just one reason why prices can go down, but the bitcoin market is not entirely dependent on one reason. There are many reasons why we can see the bitcoin price pump in a day, as well as in the long term. We just need time and patience to wait for a bigger bull run, but there is always a different possibility because speculation is never certain. I still expect a new ATH for bitcoin in 2025, but it doesn’t matter if it happens in 2026. The current investment is for the long term, so it doesn’t matter if I have to wait a few more months for better results. I am sure the market will improve soon and a bullrun can be expected, but again, stick to your plan.

Seeing how the government rules and policies can change from time to time, so it does affect the condition of the market as well, thus we are seeing right now how unpredictable btc price is. If this will continue in the final quarter, then I’m afraid to say that we won’t be seeing our most awaited bull run this year. With this, I’m sure people won’t have no choice but to wait for the following year, while they continue to maximize their bitcoin portfolio so that when it’s already time to sell, there’ll be massive profits to reap.

It's very hard to say if we are already in the bearish trend or if the market will continue to be in the bullish sentiments up to the end of the year. Although we could have witnessed the worst in human history with the pandemic and the lockdown, but this time it's very different because the catalysts for all the chaos that we are seeing is the policies of Donald Trump. I can only be optimistic as the majority here, but in any case that $109k is already the new all time high for this cycle then we can't do anything about it. "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst." So just continue to stack sats and see how it goes for us. If there is no bull run, then good, at least we have more BTC in our wallet. If there is, then we might see the biggest run and obviously, there will be profits for everyone.

Trump showed that he’s a bitcoin lover and when he comes on sit, he’ll make it more suitable for all to use crypto in their daily activities. But this has also sparked the notion that when Trump comes on sit, it’ll make the bitcoin market boom and everyone who has invested in bitcoin will benefit greatly from it. But with his advent tariff policies, it may be impossible for that to happen until the tariffs are considerable and the economy becomes more balance that it used to be. About Bull run not happening this year, this is something that will drive a lot of discussions accompanied with lost of disappointment from those who have been looking up to the market for big gains. I think if by 2025 ending we don’t see the bull run happening, many will lose trust in the technology been an investable asset and only few can still hope and still wait patiently for the market to do its thing by 2026 for a bull or bear market to happen by yhen

The current Bitcoin price is still a bull momentum trend and for sure there have been a lot of corrections in the price of Bitcoin lately but still at that we can't call that a bear market yet, and 2025 is just approaching the end of the first quarter; so we still have almost 7 month's for bitcoin to make whatever record it intended. We should not forget that Bitcoin have its own unique pattern and have a record of going against previous history pr records, and due to Bitcoin own volatilities future price predictions are always hard to do and we should just play along and make plans to be at advantage in whatever market situation that turns out.

Remember when the Market crumbled in 2020 due to a new pandemic that had taken the world by surprise and most people did even know how it was going to be stopped? Well some month later Bitcoin when on and achieved a new all-time high. Same thing with the Russia-Ukraine, Israel - Palestine, Lebanon, Syria wars and then the latest economic war between the US and China. Nothing will stop BTC from going for a new all-time high when the time comes. Just buckle up.

This could lead to what is actually possible to happen. If not this year, here comes another year to look forward to. The good thing about is, those who have not entered the market will still have the chances to buy and hold for months, still they’ll gain profits when they sell during bull run. Also, for those old investors and hodlers, I don’t think they are eager to sell already. For as long as there are opportunities to buy and hold, they will continue to hold for massive profits then.

You do have a point with the current realities on ground but we should also know that Bitcoin has always been unpredictable. It's more likely not to work with the realities that seen to be dooming its price but correspond to its natural four year circle and price expectations like franky1 postulated. I tend to go with franky1 on that, it's just that I'm hoping that new ATH (as expected) would've happened/will happen either in the first or second quarters of 2025 and not in the last quarters as speculated by them. If we don't get to witness a bull run in 2025, it simply would mean that the chains of circles would've been broken. It's expected that bull run comes a year after halving (this current one happened in 2024), and not two years after it.

I believe market will recover once tariff settled and US make peace with China, the market will recover faster than you think and we can easily see bullrun again for BTC at the Q4 of 2025. But here's the thing, all of that is speculation, nobody know what's gonna be in the future. but I have firm believe that since the market is already down so bad anyway, people are already getting bored of selling pressure. Eventually we will hit that oversold level and trend will revert. If somehow in 2025 we keep seeing market turbulence, then rally can be postponed to 2026. BTC doesn't need to stay to its historical price action, things changed, now we got ETF, institutional investors, strategic reserve on the making and many more. A lot, will come into play.

Thats why its that always recommended that you should be that investing on what you can afford to lose, and also having that common line that expect the unexpected on which this is that very most likely that to happen into this unpredictable space or market. We've been through a series of cycles and we've havent so far failed up with that 4 year cycle. If ever this one happens on which the bull run wont happen on 2025 then it will be the first time that it do happen. If ever this one totally happens then what we can do? We dont have any choice but to deal up with it and pretty sure that there will be tons of people would be that disappointed because they've been anticipating for this thing to happen for this year but since this market is unpredictable in the first place then there's always the possibility for these things to happen and thats a common approach to have and make yourself that versatile.

What if the bull run is over? I mean, we can ask questions like this as much as we want, but it's hard to predict what will happen in the coming months by looking for some comparisons with anything that happened in the past. In addition to all this circus that is happening, everyone who hopes to profit from the price increase probably has in mind that even x2 at the current price would be a great success, because we are no longer in 2017 or 2021 when we could expect x10 or something similar. It all depends on whether investors will recognize a moment to decide to allocate large amounts of money into BTC, or the exact opposite will happen. We should not lose sight of the fact that today we have huge amounts of BTC stored in BTC ETFs, and that these same BTC can flow to the open market at any time. In addition, the world is in great uncertainty not only because of the trade war, but also because of the obvious change in US policy towards its former allies when it comes to the security of these same countries. I think that NATO as a military alliance is on very thin ice, because the US no longer considers that Article 5 of that alliance is something that it must literally respect.

Manipulation for profits and moves of bigger players at its finest. We don't really need to worry, of course, whether the run will happen in 2025 or 2026 - we just need to keep the accumulation and see ourselves what the market unfolds for us. If we are going to hodl out, we are going to be okay.

One thing I know is that the bull season is not yet over, I am expecting another ATH before the end of the year. I felt discourage at some point reading trough what you said because you seem very optimistic about the Trump policies affecting Bitcoin in a lot of way and if this is true it won't be good for Bitcoin. This is not what I expected from Trump of course I have always expected the least from any ruler even the least now is becoming not what I think would happen. First, I don't see a reason for the economic competition happening regarding the tariff of which Trump is the master minder of the entire act. If we think Bitcoin can't be regulate, technically it is not regulated but with what is happening currently the price has been regulating via the economic issues happening.

Basically, we have made new history as bitcoin hit an all-time high before the halving, something that has never happened in previous bull cycles. But most people do not want to acknowledge that change and still try to believe that history will repeat itself. But even if history does not repeat itself, bitcoin will recover and grow again because this is a financial market, and no financial market goes down forever and vice versa. The financial market has only 2 main trends, Bullish and Bearish. So you are right, all we need to do is buy and wait patiently. If the bull season doesn't come this year, it might come next year or the year after, it's all a matter of time and only the patient will win.

Don't really think we're waiting till 2026. A delay can happen probably but it'd maybe be at most at the end of the year. Personally expecting it around end of 2nd quarter or middle of the 3rd quarter really so once we get past that and nothing happens, then I reckon we can add the chances of a 2026 bull into the mix. Anyhow we did hit a new ATH this year so even if it doesn't we can still technically say it followed the 4,5 year ish pattern .