What was the value of Satoshi's Bitcoin the last time he posted?

Since we're chatting about Satoshi, I figured I’d throw this question into the mix. Also, just curious: did Satoshi ever cash out any of his Bitcoin for USD or anything else before he went quiet?

We do not know exactly how much BTC Satoshi holds at that time all what I read is mostly rumors and speculation with no credible evidence. I never heard Satoshi sell his bitcoin holdings to USD at that time before he stopped posting here on the forum. And I believe, selling his bitcoin at that time indicates that he lacks confidence in this project, especially in the early days. So I think Satoshi never sold his Bitcoin even these days.

Sergio Demian Lerner's article "The Well Deserved Fortune of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin creator, Visionary and Genius" is probably the most coherent opinion on that subject. According to his analysis (he compared distinct mining patterns), a miner which could be Satoshi ("Patoshi") had mined around 1814400 BTC. From those, 1148800 BTC were not spent until the article's date (April 2013). a million Bitcoins (Lerner later talks about 900,000). (Edited: corrected an error here. The 700,000 BTC which were spent are not believed to be from Satoshi.) Satoshi's last email which seems to be authentic was written on April 13, 2011. According to Bitinfocharts, on April 12, 2011, the price was at 81 cents, and at the next data point (April 15, 2011) in that chart it's at 99 cent. MtGox was already online back then so we have a relatively coherent market already. So Satoshi's fortune at that time was worth between 930528 and 1137312 $ if we only count the coins which weren't moved, or around 1.7 times that amount if we count the moved coins too. PS: There's this mysterious post which many believe not to be authentic from March 6, 2014 ("I am not Dorian Nakamoto"). If we count this one, the price was at $642 one day later according to the same source. So we'd be talking about $737 million at that date.

Figures on bitcoins own by Satoshi Nakamoto are speculation and the Bitcoin founder can own more or less than speculative numbers. We can not know whether Satoshi sold any of his bitcoins, never can know that. The publicly spending is 10 BTC to Hal Finney, and that's all we can be sure. Who owns the most bitcoin?

around $50M was his value at the time for 1M coins.

The thing about Bitcoin is that it can provide any individual with a great deal of anonymity if they want it. Satoshi did that which means we don't know which coins are Satoshi's to talk about how much they are, how much they're worth and whether he has ever sold them or not. The only thing we know for sure is that Satoshi owns only 2 keys: First one is the key to the output of the Genesis block. Those coins have never been moved and you can already see the balance of the address because some people sent coins to it (remember to deduct 50 if you are checking it on a broken block explorer that includes the unspendable Genesis block output) Second one is the key to the input Satoshi announced to own when he sent 10BTC from it to Hal Finney back in 2009 as the first bitcoin transaction ever. People have sent coins to that key as well (to the P2PKH version of it) and it hasn't moved either.

Thanks for the facts presented! On the side note, Arkham did a great job. Overall, it can be speculated as much as people want, as much as who Satoshi really is

Other than the 10 bitcoins he sent to Hal Finney, we can't prove how much of Satoshi's total bitcoins he owns, but since there are thousands of bitcoins that haven't been spent since the early days, we can say that the bitcoins Satoshi mined may never have been spent.

When you say "sell," there should be some evidence that it was sold on an exchange, but so far, there hasn't been any. So, it's safe to assume that Satoshi never sold his Bitcoin for USD. Sure, there are speculations that some of the Satoshi-era wallets have moved significant amounts of Bitcoin, but even if that was Satoshi, just moving coins doesn’t mean they were sold.

Agreed. Moving them may be done for other reasons unknown to us, however, Satoshi probably enjoys the position he is now in. Anonymous. Famous. Safe. And reached pretty much everything he would want to, probably.

We really don't know. If we knew with certainty that he sold some bitcoin, then it'd be probable that the buyer knows his real name, and judging by his behavior, there's no chance he would have left the slight traces of Satoshi during a trade. What evidence do we have about this? Was it just Hal claiming he received them from Satoshi?

Do not believe all what you are reading online about Satoshi about the bitcoin he mined, only few of it will be true. You do not know if Satoshi is even still mining bitcoin right now. Also no one knows if Satoshi continued to mine bitcoin after the addresses linked to be his addresses. No one knows who Satoshi is. We do not know if Satoshi is a man, a woman or a group of people. We do not know if he is buying and selling bitcoin right now. I think we should just leave all these kind of question not answered because the answers are not accurate.

The mined Bitcoin, rumored to be 1 million coins, happened way back in the early days. He was the first miner since he created the whole network. That theory was explained in a post by... Whether he's buying or selling Bitcoin isn’t really the point. If he actually owns 1 million Bitcoins, what else is he gonna do but sell some, right? There’s no proof he’s selling, but if he’s alive, it’s hard to believe he hasn’t spent a bit. Maybe he sold through P2P to avoid leaving any traces for authorities.

Interesting. That would be consistent with my theory that Satoshi was CIA/NSA. In other words, the operative there created it, it got out of hand, so they pulled away and let the community take it over. If they felt they were making somebody's life miserable because somebody was falsely accused of being them, it would make sense that they would feel bad about that (or would be afraid of being sued over it) and pop their head up to correct the situation. And it may look inauthentic because it was another aspect of the organization e.g. legal department that perhaps didn't use the same tradecraft. For me, this mystery hinges on one thing that people seem to miss: why would anybody let $50 billion just sit there? Or in this case, $737 million? No individual on the planet is rich enough blow off that much money, and statistically you'd have to assume that Satoshi was just an ordinary worker somewhere that made a decent salary, not a Forbes List billionaire. Another thing that doesn't add up here is that Satoshi apparently made absolute zero on Bitcoin. Again, if he was just an "ordinary Joe" (or Jane) then you would think he'd at least sell $10k worth if only as a means of feeling good that his invention really worked. But if he were CIA/NSA, he would not want to sell anything because it would be... a big mess with his superiors and his organization (and my theory is that now it's an even bigger mess that they don't know what to do about). (I began my CIA/NSA theory here on bitcointalk half-joking, but... hmmm....).

My interpretation is that, if he didn't pass away during the early days, he did spend his coins; just not all of them. After thinking about it extensively, I've come to the conclusion that the most likely scenario is that he simply spent a fraction of his coins, just to not "make a splash" that he's Satoshi, essentially hiding in the early miners crowd. No person really needs hundreds of millions of dollars. Satoshi could easily retire by selling just one block reward from all the hundreds of thousands he's suspected to have earned. Check out this recent transaction. It spends 50 bitcoin that were mined just a couple of weeks after the network was set in stone. This could easily be his. (Of course, it could be somebody else's as well, Satoshi did not mine in secret, he had released Bitcoin immediately after the first block.) That's certainly what I would do if I were Satoshi. P.S: Highly doubt it's the NSA. It would either have been leaked or most coins would have been moved, and I'm sure they'd have found a way to cover that. Only a person whose life would be in danger could disappear and spend only a small fraction of all those billions in bitcoin.

Could be. Personally, my own feeling about human nature is that somebody in Satoshi's position would want to spend at least some of his original coins just to see if it worked. I get not spending a "lot" of it, but it seems like he'd want to spend at least a few dollars worth just as a proof of concept, and/or a badge of personal pride. If he was "humble", he would just spend a few satoshis and make (say) $10 or something like that. But if you worked at the CIA/NSA, making even $10 in "revenue" would make a giant mess since they would have no way to account for it, who knows what rules or even laws you would be breaking, and so on. And it wouldn't be his money, it would be the government's, so he wouldn't care about any personal gain. This scenario, for me, explains why the number is zero and not say some small number (or big number).

Even if he wanted to spend a few, just to see it working, it would make absolutely no sense for him to spend them under the name of Satoshi. The most rationale approach would be to start spending them after he would have acquired them under his real name, whatever that is. Entirely possible for him to hide in the early miners crowd, and as I said, I think it's the most likely scenario. Why are we even assuming he's dead? When someone leaves a project and doesn't return online, the default assumption shouldn't be that they've passed away. Especially when, from the start, there were signs he planned to leave, and he built a project designed to avoid any single point of failure. It all adds up to the perfect plan. I hope he's healthy and doing well.

Until now BTC has not moved since it was mined by Satoshi? I don't know if Satoshi ever enjoyed the bitcoin profits he made? This is still a big question after his mysterious disappearance. Yeahh this is just speculation who Satoshi really is? Many have claimed him but we never believe in his evidence and confessions.

If the blocks in the first two years are still controlled by Satoshi every once in a while they are sold. At least two or three from 2009-2011 were sold in 2024. Now since no one knows who or whom Satoshi is , no one knows who cashed those old blocks this year. As for satoshi value of the coins from 2009 to 2011 when he left in 2011 . Maybe 10 million value which is now 60 billion in value.

The truth is that we actually can't pinpoint the actual networth of Satoshi before he disappeared. It would be like trying to count a couple of sea shells down the beach because there is literally no way for you to actually pinpoint an exact and accurate amount of bitcoin Satoshi mined and owned before he vanished. Of course during the earliest period of the launch of bitcoin we really didn't have a lot of bitcoin miners around as at that time since bitcoin adoption is pretty much low. Based on all this it's a very possible scenario for Satoshi to move some coins to even a centralised exchange without any one actually suspecting that he did. Of course there are a couple of wallets flagged as Satoshi's but they may just be speculations since it's very possible that some of his wallets are still unknown till date.