Will my transfer be confirmed in a year?

I’ve got a Trezor One cold wallet. I had some leftover BTC in an old segwit address which we sent to a new segwit address. The mining fees are pretty low at the moment. This transaction was made on November 11, 2023. I’m worried it’s buried down the list because of those low fees. Do you guys think it’ll get confirmed in the next 1-2 years? Would love to hear your thoughts. Cheers!

In sarcasm, yes it will be confirmed in a year to come. The 12 sats/vbyte transaction fee is way too low and it can’t even be accelerated. If the fees come down it will get confirmed but that will be subjected to it been still in the mempool. It will later be drop if the fees do not come down soon and the wallet doesn’t have an in built rebroadcast.

You're sending ‎0.00005047BTC. Even if it would get confirmed, at current fees it's too small for the receiving address to send it. So it's basically worthless until fees drop. Pro tip: check fees before making a transaction. And try to avoid creating Bitcoin dust inputs.

As Zaguru12 said, it will be dropped by the nodes' mempools. It generally takes 2 weeks to be dropped if the fees don't fall below your fee rate.

So you are essentially doing an advertisement for scrypt  algo. Since you could have easily sent $1.84 worth of  Either LTC or Doge. Once again I am not saying this send was a clever way to advertise that scrypt is better for small sends. I am not saying the poster is a scrypt fan. But basically this does exactly that.

What do you mean by "old segwit" and "new segwit"? No need to wait for one or two years. Your transaction will either be confirmed by that time or will be dropped from most if not all mempools. There are few things you can do to accelerate the transaction but the sent amount isn't worth it. By the way, the dust amount for segwit transactions isn't 546 sats!

Actually, it is already dropped by the mempool I can't see the transaction he made on block hair so my guess is this transaction is already rejected by the mempool. @OP check your wallet again you might be able to create a new transaction but the problem is this is not the right time to send a very small amount, the network is still congested you might need to wait for a few days until the current recommended fee drops.

The old segwit is just the nested segwit addresses (wrapped witness to pay to script hash) they usually have their prefix or starts with 3 they are of two type the PSH-P2WSH for multi sig and PSH-P2WPKH for single sig. they are Base58 encoded. The new segwit addresses are the native segwit address having the prefixes of bc1 and are Bech32 encoded. Both have just slightly different in transaction fees with native segwit (bc1) having the lower fees If you look at the transaction ID posted by the OP he was send from the address type 3 (old segwit) to a new the one (bc1)

Now, it propagated again. Those nodes that dropped it from their mempool for being way below their maxmempool must have accepted it back from nodes that kept it. It's opted-in for rbf, If you're willing to bump the fee to at least 2140satoshi (16.1sat/vB), it'll be accepted by ViaBTC's free accelerator: viabtc.com/tools/txaccelerator/ That's about 554 satoshi to be deducted from the already small output. After that, it would only take about 10~60minutes or more to get a confirmation, until they mined a block.

There is no such thing as "the" mempool. Just because one block explorer's node has dropped the transaction from its mempool does not mean any other node has followed suit. As nc50lc has said, OP's transaction is opted in to RBF so he can replace it any time he wants. And even if it wasn't opted in, full RBF is now widespread enough he could still replace it any time he wants with a little extra effort. He does not need to wait for any nodes to drop it.

There are many mempools, not only one mempool. A waiting transaction can be dropped from one mempool but it can be chosen or not drop by other mempools. The question is seriously because it asks for chance to get a confirmation after 1 or 2 years and honestly I am not sure all mempools will not drop that transaction if it stuck like 1 or 2 years. Mempools have their max mempool size, mempool expiration time and they can update their min transaction fee too. Chance to see an unconfirmed transaction is not dropped from mempools after 1 or 2 years is like impossible.

the op can rebroadcast it over and over and it could last a long time. so a transaction can easy peasy last months. Just do 1 sat and rebroadcast it.

Firstly apogio specified that each node has its one mempool I just bolder that part. Yes it is rare to see transaction still left in mempool for almost 1-2 years but it is much possible either by the user himself rebroadcasting it regularly and the fee as stated above or the wallet used as an inbuilt rebroadcast which it does regularly. This will make the nodes that have dropped the transaction to pick it again and could remain like that except if the fee paid was at one time ok to get it confirmed

It doesn't even need to be rebroadcast for some nodes to keep it for a year of more. We know for a fact there are some nodes which run with much higher limits than the default. If you look at https://mempool.space/ for example, their node is showing over 1 GB of memory use, far beyond the 300 MB default, and the graph is still showing all transactions down to 1 sats/vbyte. If you look at https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1w,weight,0, his node is keeping all transactions, even those paying less than 1 sat/vbyte in fees. There will be many other such nodes which will hold on to OP's transaction indefinitely. Still, his transaction pays 12 sats/vbyte, so it won't take a year for fees to drop back down to that level.

I agree that it wouldn’t take a year and the OP was just being sarcastic and was met with some sarcastic replies as well but, my point of wonder is, Why send such small, dust amount. It’s hardly of any relevance or perhaps it’s requested to clear error IP on forum account creation. I wonder if that’s it else, why the dust amount and at such a time when, you even have to give it some hours for transactions of 100sat/vbyte to confirm and yet here you are @OP with 12sat/vbyte. Does it really make much difference @o_e_I_e_o, having your transactions listed at the bottom of some of the pools and getting dropped. In both cases, you get to wait until the network is decongested and fees reduced. I feel, your more relaxed having your transaction, dropped/rejected and stayed in your wallet.

It is better to use the Lightning Network for sending these kind of tiny transactions, to avoid paying humongous fees that are 10-20x the size of your transaction value. But no, it might take a few weeks for this transaction to confirm, but it will not take 1 year because there is a mempool eviction policy that purges old transactions after 14 days (by default).

https://blockchair.com/tr/bitcoin/address/bc1q2jrecvg8u80rsymugyy3z945dph87m86n5k8jz BTC sent at low cost was approved today after 3 months. It was a social test. https://bitaps.com/fc583283d862c17f30a6c0a9dc2fce8eb576593046dfd03f7726017ed21598a6/bc1q2jrecvg8u80rsymugyy3z945dph87m86n5k8jz

I don't get how this was a social test. I'm very interested in the results, please share it. At the very least, you've successfully performed an experiment that even with the default of 14days mempoolexpiry setting, some nodes will still keep a would've dropped transaction in their mempool that will eventually be relayed to miners in the right network conditions.

It could have been the Trezor server. I don't know what their default is, but I assume they keep broadcasting all transactions until they get confirmed (or replaced). I assume exchanges do the same, just like my Bitcoin Core keeps broadcasting transactions forever.