Will October Bring a Bear Market?

Joao Wedson, the guy behind the crypto analytics platform Alphractal, has shared his thoughts on what to expect for bitcoin. He pointed out that bitcoin has already dropped about 15% from its all-time high, and if this trend keeps up, we could be looking at the start of a bear market next year. He mentioned that this cycle is different from the past ones, mainly because of the influence of ETFs and big investors jumping in. But, let's not forget, historically, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin tends to see some serious gains. So, there's definitely a chance for a correction followed by a pump next month. Are you holding out for that pump, or have you already felt the impact of the FUD?

Yes, but do you think this is bearish or bullish? Because I think it's quite bullish. If this were the case, the price should moon, because those institutional players are buying in large quantities to HODL. The problem with this guy is that he mixes a fact that would be more of a fundamental analysis, like this one, with his technical analysis. I would bet quite heavily that bitcoin will not fall to $50,000 as he predicts in one of his scenarios. Anyone want to bet?

Only people that can make bear market not to occur are those companies like Strategy and Metaplanet and other investors that are not ready to sell. People should not mention ETFs at all. ETFs are not different from how bitcoin was before ETFs because people that buy the ETFs can decide to sell at anytime. I do not know when the bear market will begin but I know it will definitely happen. Companies like Strategy are not yet many while countries still have months or more than a year ahead to begin their bitcoins strategic reserves. All I know is that any bear market is an opportunity for someone like me.

I don't know when the bear market will come but I believe it will happen in the future and once it happens bitcoin will be dumped and easily drop to 50k$-40k$. Many would argue that since the government and Wall Street institutions are already in the market, they would never let the price of bitcoin drop that much because it would not be in their interest. But in my opinion, they are in the market for profit and there is no regulation to prevent them from dumping the market. So even if the 4 year cycle is broken and once the bear season comes, bitcoin will still be dumped as usual.

Wedson believes the current correction is quite reasonable, especially considering that this cycle involves ETFs and large investors, which significantly strengthen Bitcoin's position going forward. Looking back, we can see that the end of the year often provides a price boost, so the opportunity for a rally remains open. In fact, we can view this moment as an opportunity to strengthen confidence, rather than getting caught up in FUD. CMIW

If they knew what they were talking about they would be rich. Their analysis and assumptions are not instructions for people follow their advice. Bitcoin could pump or dump next month but it is not connected to advice given by analysts. Bitcoin investors do not need anything from analysts.

October will be very last months of this market cycle bull run but I think it's worth to repeat what we all knew "Don't time the market" as we will fail to do so. History can be checked by this following link and given tables. https://cryptorank.io/price/bitcoin/analytics You are free to access it and use it for your prediction but I'd like to avoid timing the market.

It is yet another random prediction, meaningless and based on hot air. He's a retard. As most people are making bullish predictions, he tries to make an opposite one to have a chance to be one of the rare ones to be right. If he makes a bullish prediction and it becomes true, it is meaningless as there are many bullish predictions relating to the end of year. Desperate man does desperate things to make a name for himself due to improbable events. The article is retarded too. It faces a reckoning because the price moved 15% from ATH?

Most of the work by analysts is meaningless. They are not talked about in the media like serious people, it is hot air and random predictions which are completed from previous cycles and dates. Analyst make new predictions every week, how much of their work is accurate?

Those who predict the Bearish Bitcoin market will occur in October, the proof in his head is a sign ? Meaning: Those who predict Bitcoin down to the $ 50K level are still doubtful or not. However, when talking about the Bearish Bitcoin market, it is likely that it is likely to occur October 2026-2027 not 2025, that's what I see in several sources. For this reason, including me and I also hope Bitcoin continues to be the prima donna of digital in demand throughout the world, for now Bitcoin has shown positive things, especially in the economic field for the wider community, For this reason, Bitcoin hopes that despite experiencing a bearish market in the future can be increased from what has happened at this time.

Bicoin has passed that stage for such dump of $50,000. This is not about the psychological aspect but considering the valid effects of the institutions who has so much invested agressive in the short come of this very cycle. I am either not going to exergerate what price it will fall then. Maybe we can discuss that after the bullish season is over in their cycle so that we can derive our logics from the Ath and to express what bottom it will fall in the bear.

how can he predict that bicoin will fall to $50,000 the very extence of his knowledge about bitcoin in questionable. during this period that of bitcoin popularity people like this emerges to get victims that the can trap with misinformed analysis. the battle against fud is a formidable one that needs refined techniques so you dont dance to the rhythm of panic move. -Coldjoker

The institutional players, and other entities that are buying bitcoin in large quantities is the reason why we haven't seen the price of bitcoin dip below $109k+ recently. The way that they're buying aggressively is the same way some hodlers are also selling aggressively using this opportunity to take profits. However, I believe that in Uptober bitcoin price will pump above $120k because after Fed meets on the 16-17th of this month, that will decide if rates will be cut immediately or not. Nobody says that the bear market wouldn't come. My concern is which catalyst or news will trigger the bear market because I know that companies stacking bitcoin currently, wouldn't panic and sell.

I agree with the statement that the ETF and institutional involvements in bitcoin will definitely make this years bull run to be different and it is already happening as there are indications already that signifies that this years bull run is definitely a bit different, Although it hasn’t actually swayed away from the historical trend but there are things that are making it deter a little bit away, like the month of August ending bearish. One key thing is that this institutions involvement will be heavily affecting the market volatility rather than anything but most historical events will still be unchanged. This is part of the reason why most people think that we could even have an extended bull run as institutions wouldn’t be selling easily I will add November to the month for bitcoin been bullish, November isn’t predominantly bearish and with the way the third quarter of the year has turned out I will say bitcoin would be super bullish in the last quarter and this could make it extended throughout the months and we could be testing correction probably the last two to three weeks of the year. Lots of corrections are happening already this quarter paving way for a bullish last quarter

Many have made such plans and I have read such news from various media outlets but in the light of everything, what seems impossible this year may happen next year. Although nothing can be said with certainty the market situation can go in any direction. However, something may happen next year, which I hope for.

First of all we must agree that Bitcoin is unpredictable in it movement and for that no matter the level of both technical or otherwise analysis of the market that you may have done, you still have to rely on the actual outcome of the price of Bitcoin in October, we may have factors like institutional investors and government reserves, but regardless of all that I am confident that Bitcoin won't dip to low in October if not bulk momentum, the bear seasons are almost over based on my own speculation, against multiple other speculators who say we expect more bear market and possibility of Bitcoin touching $40k to $50k within 2026-2027, but I laugh at such speculation, since we haven't seen such drastic dropped in terms of price gap from the all time High of $120k+ to $40k-$50 as speculated.

They're all investing for profit, from Wall Street to corporations. I don't expect any of them to hold for many years. They don't have a micro-strategy plan, and they're solely focused on profit. The bear market is in the future. The current news seems like nonsense to me. We might see a further rise in the winter, and a new record might be broken. Then the bear market will come, and we might return to the figures you mentioned.

The impact of ETFs in the Bitcoin market have been felt earlier when it was first granted. Many rushed into it making bitcoin to be bullish as it got a lot of attention and traction for massive investment at the time. Individuals coming together to venture into bitcoin made the market react to it immediately, but when they come to sell off, we won’t feel the impact because we can’t see a massive sell off from them all at the same time. Some will hold for longer years before they think of selling. These investors are the real deal and any movement of funds from them in the bitcoin market will have big effect in the market. Every company invested in order to earn profit, so one cannot dispute the fact that this whale investors will hold forever and never sell. Or will not take partial profit when need be for them. So the bearish market will definitely come one day.

do you really know it will happen? do you posses time travel? are you certain that the four year cycle will stand? I certainly am not sure of any of the above.

I'm not convinced we're in the final quarter of the bull cycle's peak, nothing is certain and everything remains a possibility. Markets fundamentally react based on supply and demand, it's still entirely possible the peak could shift to early next year or even mid-year, so I can't be certain at this point. Of course I'm waiting for a more price up, while I also have to be realistic about all possibilities. Market cycles aren't always the same as before, but bearish and bullish cycles inevitably occur. For the rest of this year, I think we'll remain bullish on Bitcoin, but the price could still fall due to FUD and other bad news. I'm still bullish so far, so I still expect a price up.