Debt is quickly taking over GDP

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cobra2021Full Member
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#1Mar 22, 2022, 11:21 PM
GDP is basically a way to gauge how an economy is doing. But these days, GDP growth is leaning heavily on debt being viewed as a sign of productivity. When countries figure out their GDP, they factor in the massive value of goods and services that are funded by debt. So, it feels like we’re not actually creating real wealth anymore, just borrowing against what’s to come.
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mike.chadSenior Member
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#2Mar 23, 2022, 06:18 PM
You can not say definitively because countries borrow money that means debt is becoming a new way of measuring GDP. Countries borrow for different purposes which could be either for development or to savage an economic situation. It is true that low income countries borrow money from IMF or other global banks and countries but that has been the practice of supporting smaller and poorer countries in their economic challenges. That doesn't affect Gross Domestic Product which is basically the individual investment going on in the country, the exportation, the consumption rate and government spending. All these still go on despite borrowing because that's the way government run, except it reduces in the rate and that's how you know a country that is doing well or not economically.
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nickprotoFull Member
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#3Mar 24, 2022, 12:28 AM
The debt to GDP ratio might be a good one for determining investor confidence in a country's government but that's about it. National debt is more accurate than gdp but it's a fairly unreliable metric as a lot of similar economies tend to trend the same way whether they need to or not. GDP is only really meant to be calculated as how much an economy produces (the goods and services bought from abroad plus the goods and services bought domestically).
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wolf2020Senior Member
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#4Mar 24, 2022, 03:37 AM
That is the case of Nigeria, instead of working  towards improving the countries GDP, they are busy increasing the country's debts. The past and present administration took it as a responsibility to increase the countries debt level instead of working on the improvement of our gross demostic product as other African leaders are transforming there nations to good. So I see nothing bad in saying that debt will soon become our GDP. As at June 30 the total debts of Nigeria is 152.40 trillion naira, all used on irrelevant things that will yield no profit to the country and  are still planning to take more without esterblisbing  proper payment pattern that can help bring remedy to the situation
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the_k1ngSenior Member
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#5Mar 24, 2022, 06:24 AM
Debt is real and it is big for some countries, but that is a separate conversation to GDP. Money is only lent to countries (at low rates) when it is believed that it'll be repaid and when it's unlikely to be repaid then they'll only be able to borrow smaller amounts at expensive rates. Debt can actually be highly beneficial to countries that control their own currency because theoretically they can print more and dilute the value that is owed. It is a constantly changing dynamic and spending can stifle government spending due to repayments, so it has to be used carefully on productive projects, not just everyday spending.
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king2011Full Member
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#6Mar 24, 2022, 10:56 AM
It's true that modern GDP is heavily influenced by credit and debt expansion. When consumption and government spending are financed by debt, economic activity is still recorded as GDP, even though it doesn't always create new productive capacity. This leads to asset inflation, pseudo-consumption, and the illusion of growth. But GDP doesn't consider debt as productivity; it only records economic activity. The problem with debt lies in the type of economic activity financed by debt, and whether that debt generates future productive capacity. Debt for infrastructure, education, technology, and productive industries actually creates real wealth, while debt for short-term consumption borrows from the future. What's relevant isn't simply GDP growth, but whether the real economy is growing, as indicated by increased labor productivity, increased production capacity, increased output of real goods and services (not just prices), increased real incomes, and improved long-term economic resilience. So, if GDP increases due to productive debt, it means the real economy is growing; if GDP increases due to consumer credit and asset inflation, it means it's pseudo-growth. GDP can indeed grow due to debt, but that's not GDP's fault. The fault lies when debt doesn't create new productive capacity. What we need to protect is not just GDP figures, but real economic growth. GDP measures activity not quality, real growth depends on productivity not debt.
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yield_ninjaFull Member
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#7Mar 24, 2022, 05:16 PM
The funny fact about the Nigerian case is the fact that the executive will tell the public that they've not reached the threshold of their borrowing limit,  this means that the national assembly will allow the executive to continue borrowing until they get to their limit. There is absolutely nothing wrong in borrowing to finance some of the capital projects a country needs, sometimes most of these project brings a return on investment that can help contribute to the GDP of the economy. But then, every borrowing comes with consequences, at most times IMF give some policies that are not too favorable to the debtor, that is why it is always advised for countries not to go into arbitrary borrowing because they say that "He who goes borrowing, goes Sorrowing". .
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