I’m really curious about something that’s been happening in the market lately, especially with Bitcoin. The way Bitcoin’s price keeps shifting is so unpredictable. So, how far do you think we can actually go with trying to guess its price?
Or should we just stop trying to predict it and roll with whatever price Bitcoin ends up at? I mean, we’ve all been wrong so many times before.
And I think that's what speculation is, it's never a accurate math or science even though we have technical analysis around. This could also the reason why you and me and the rest of us can make our own "wild and educated guesses".
So I don't think that everyone should give up on speculating, but rather accepting the fact that Bitcoin market doesn't follow the traditional magic logic. Prices could influence by the slightest tweet by someone, like what Elon did before regarding Bitcoin and it's mining effect on the environment. Or macroeconomic events like what Trump did, with his additional tariffs on China. Or the news about ETF's and other big institutions entering the picture.
People can speculate to whatever extent they want, they can raise up and bring down expectations based on market sentiments, but the actual performance is left for Bitcoin. Speculations are mare guesses so anyone putting trust on speculated prices is not doing himself any good. Speculation can't stop because people will always have their different opinions about bitcoin at all time, but just know that speculated prices were never intend to meet actual performance of bitcoin.
You can speculate on lower time frame. For long term what you can do is just accumulate and positioning yourself in the market.
For the most part, bitcoin is unpredictable as you say and you'd be lying if you say you can predict price of bitcoin 1 year into the future.
There is reason why people getting liquidated in the market, they thought they can predict it, turns out they can't.
As a result, $19 B went to the drain.
At a certain point, continued speculation becomes a war against noisy data (market sentiment, monetary policy, institutional investor activity, volume, and liquidity). Now imagine having to summarize all of that into a single conclusion that determines your position and your future financial situation.
Experienced traders and investors now increasingly adopt the approach: "Stop predicting, start positioning". I think we've long been familiar with DCA, and its results have never disappointed.
Bitcoin price continues to fall because the the ongoing trade war between United States and China but there is a support at $105000, a support that we do not know yet if it will be weak enough to turn to more downtrends in a way that the price may fall below $1000000 again. With what bitcoin price is right now, I am very confused to make the a prediction. I just prefer to watch how the market goes right now.
If we speculate on Bitcoin in the short term, I think it's difficult because of its unpredictable and risky nature. However, if we speculate long-term, it can become a reality. Currently, I think most people view Bitcoin as part of a very promising long-term financial plan that can store value, and its history should not be forgotten. Because what we've seen so far is that the Bitcoin price continues to rise, although there are still dips, but ultimately, the price recovers, proving that their speculation will come true in the long term.
I simply view positive Bitcoin price speculation as motivation for the long term, which will eventually come true.
It is difficult to make a detailed prediction of Bitcoin price due to many variables such as fed policy, geopolitics, whale movements, etc. You will often be wrong. But giving up completely and accepting whatever price comes up is the other extreme. A better approach is to have a realistic framework. Understand spot support/resistance zones, understand the macro backdrop, size positions small enough to survive mistakes, and focus on probability rather than accurate pricing. Successful traders dont price correctly. They manage risk and stay flexible. It is more important to be right than to not fail when you make a mistake.
Yes, it's too different things though, most of us could have been predicting short term as we do trade and trying to squeeze that profit as some point. But it's very difficult to really predict how it's going to be in short frame even if 4 hour time frame so what's more in a day or two?
Maybe others like that volatility, and for sure as you have said, long term prediction might be the best option for us. But that is for non-traders.
So there is no accuracy in predicting this market, we can only speculate and then see if we are right or then try to learn to predict using TA but it's not assurance too that at least our prediction is 90% accurate.
Permit me to speculate one more time, just to answer your question if Bitcoin will witness a pull back that could push the price below the resistance level as you mentioned around $105000, which somewhat a strong enough to keep Bitcoin at that level rang.
Considering also the Bitcoin weekly cycle, we have hard almost two weeks of bear market so for sure this coming week is going to be bullish for Bitcoin, that is my speculation and this is the best time to open some quick Bitcoin positions, long position though.
Bitcoin speculation will never stop at any given time, even when we failed many times, the urge to stay positive will be in our minds to think of the future price and how we should utilize it. That's why it's hard for some individuals to go a month without speculating on Bitcoin because every price decline or increase is an opportunity to sell or buy Bitcoin at a discount price. That makes it ideal to prepare ahead of time so that when the increase or decrease happens, you won't be caught by surprise by it.
Fact is that it is not even possible to completely stop anything that is related to bitcoin price speculation as one that is in the system. you must think of the direction bitcoin price is headed but the thing is just to know that your speculation most times is not going to be accurate as expected.
if you are at the accumulation phase of your bitcoin, your speculation has little or nothing to do with your bitcoin stack. the investors that are really going deep in their investment rarely speculate too much. they look at bitcoin price and see where it will likely fall as things unfolds but never panic regardless of how the price of bitcoin is going.
Speculations isn't part of the bitcoin core but part of its market events where enthusiasts have to share ideals about what with their superstitious of what in due time could happen while thoughts among individuals in the same market may differ. Even with personal and interpersonal formulas employed and put together all to predict the market but had always got it wrong time after time and it keeps you worried why still taking the risk? If you trust bitcoin and want to hold for the very long term, you should keep focused to your buying and accumulation process while you remain unpanick regardless volatilities until you reach your investment goal
If not for adoption influence, speculations are for the worries. I can only anticipate how to reach my goal given remark to the 4 years event cycles that may determine how long to hold so I can just keep that focus healthily.
We will always needed to check on the market, so we can have clew of its direction and also be able to positioned right for it, there are many indicators that can serves as a pointer to when we should buy and at what rate is more safely profitable for us.
Additionally, we cant always be right about the market, but there is a way we can be more closer to getting it right, because any market rise or fall would have been seen by some experts from the chart before such takes effect and happened.
Speculation will not stop, but even though speculation is often wrong, it doesn't matter to me It's just what is expected, even if it's not accurate.
Even though in reality we have to accept bitcoin at whatever price it is now speculated to rise, the US vs China trade issue has a major impact, and we never knew about the trade war before.
Well the current price was already predicted by many prominent person in crypto like CZ in the past way back when the price is very low. The majority think that its a delusional or exaggerated but for those who have strongly conviction for the Bitcoin future this prediction is their goal.
Its not bad to speculate since it creates a lot of positivity to help Bitcoin grow in the future.
We cant determine the exact price prediction but we can always assume what will our target price in the future.
There's no one who could accurately predict the price of BTC. What we are analyzing is the previous data; we are only analyzing the probabilities based on the previous data because there are times that the price bounces on support and resistance. However, sometimes it fails, but that failure sometimes is the opportunity for those who are looking for breakouts.
Also, there are lots of things that affect the price, not only in technical analysis but also in fundamental analysis, like news about tariffs.
So, it's impossible to accurately predict the price of BTC, maybe near but still impossible.
You're right, even with the help of AI, Bitcoin price remains difficult to predict. AI can do many things, but its analysis still isn't 100% accurate. Therefore, I tend to agree with those who argue that Bitcoin is better suited as a long term investment. Apart from providing more certain profits, we are also not always overwhelmed by worries about market volatility which is influenced by various sentiments and regulations.
Bitcoin's price cannot be predicted precisely because there are many factors, including market sentiment, global economic conditions, and other factors that make its movements quite difficult to predict, so what we can do is speculate on its price based on trends, historical patterns, or fundamental analysis that we do, and then from that we can draw conclusions about possible price directions in the future. but, because this is only an estimation, we simply don't know how the market will actually react afterward, so we need to remain vigilant and only invest money that we can afford.
I would just like to state that Bitcoin itself does not determine the value, its the market
which determines that, and everyone who buys, sells or trades Bitcoin feed the market.
Personally I can predict not accuratelyto about 60 minutes but after that
I wouldnt put any Bitcoin or FIAT at risk based on my predicting capabilities.
I would say there are very experienced traders who can predict the market within
their desired range.
Speculating the price of Bitcoin is easy when there is nothing at risk for you, but it is
what it is speculation, nothing is set in stone as a definite.