No one really knows how long this war will drag on. Could be weeks, could be months. But a lot of folks think that when it’s all over, things will just snap back to how they used to be. That’s so not true. Oil prices are climbing, and every day companies are having a tough time staying afloat, which gets them closer to going under. Sure, the big players might manage, but even they are feeling the heat. Expecting a quick return to 'normal' once the fighting stops is just wishful thinking. It’s gonna take time for things to settle down again, if they even get back to what we thought was normal.
There will be a new normal.
There are a lot of events which could happen and a lot of questions which are open for discussion and
given that this war is going to be an extended one and presuming the US and Isreal meet Irans terms
for ending there will be hardship to follow.
Will the Petro Dollar be replaced? this in turn will affect the US' stock market long term
What will the cost be of reparitions to Iran? would this cripple the US and Isreal fiancially
Will Iran control oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz?
Will the overall situation aid BRIC's and in particular Russia based on their Oil reserves and likely being
the supplier to Europe.
Until we get to these stages 20% of global Oil, 25% of Gas and 30% of Urea will continue to rise
affecting literally everything and could lead to food shortages.
There will be normal, no doubts. But it will take time; just stopping the war and the next day everything being normal is not possible at all. We don't know how long it will take to be normalised again, and also we don't know when the war will stop. As long as the war lasts longer, the economy will be weaker. Because for everything we need fuel; unless we have our own fuel like the Middle East, then it's hard for survival. For, like, developing countries already struggling to get fuel, a few gasoline stations are already empty due to no supply in my country.
I wish the war would stop as soon as possible. Though it seems crypto hasn't been affected by the war, the entry economy has been affected. For small companies that need fuel, they have to pause the service that directly affects the economy. Big companies would survive more, but unless the war stops, the oil circulation will not be normalised, which means everything is going to be affected. Due to low supply, all the product and service prices will be increased. So there is no alternative to stopping war.
Theres always an alternative. I read an article recently that Saudi Arabia built a pipe line long time ago that bypassed Straight of Hormus and perfect to use in time like this.
Its East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline). Im not an expert on this but theres always an alternative since that is not the only shore that can be used to dock and transfer oil.
Adjustment will be needed but later on we will have a new normal.
It was because of situations like this we never prayed for war in the first place, war is aways very easy to start as one single word from a single leader can instigate or cause war that will destroy so many things and increase hardship in a nation that has a balanced economy. Since the beginning of the war, all victims especially the poor masses have been severely affected in one way or the other but our area of concentration now is in the cost of crude oil, the existence of the ongoing war has closed down on the chances of crude transportation and may lead to the increment in crude price that may contribute to the economic meltdown of some nations with weak economy.
The assumption or conclusion that the price of crude will drop immediately the war stops is a complete lie because there will be lack of facilities due to destruction in the process so price will go higher until does facilities have been replaced.
Yes, there will alway be an alternative or a different solution, if the problem is not solved. However, do not expect thing to go back to how they were before with those alternative.
Similarly, Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Russian oil and gas by purchasing from the United States, Norway...But did you know that they are buying them at price many times higher than Russia? Therefore, regardless of what the alternative solution is, oil from the Middle East will become more expensive than transporting it through the Strait of Hormuz.
It is purely evident in economics 101 that when war affects oil supply, prices usually stay high for some time. Even if the war ends, it wont just magically return to normal immediately. It may take months for production, supply chains and markets to stabilize again.
The ongoing war in the Middle East will have a wide impact on the global economy, rising oil prices and struggling companies make recovery a long and difficult process, especially this time Iran has given an ultimatum to US allies and Israel to cut diplomatic ties with the country in order to get permission to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
We all hope the war will end quickly and everything will return to normal, but the reality is that economic recovery is not instantaneous. Even after the war ended, there were still many challenges to face, such as inflation and changing consumer behavior. Small companies will feel a greater impact due to limited capital to accelerate post-war economic recovery, the circulation of oil is still very limited, making most small companies have to spend more money than usual to be able to operate again.
It is a logical reasoning that things will not return back to normal immediately the war is put to a stop. Normally, there is always consequences for wars fought either directly or indirectly. For instance, the war between Russia and Ukraine has left the global economy with certain consequences like some countries have risen inflation and some product have now increased in price like flour and products made from flour e.g bread.
So things will not bounce back immediately after war and some micro businesses will go down, bringing some household into poverty. Prices of goods will increase like we see fuel increasing and that is the major factor for some countries energy supply or electricity.
The recovery of the post-war situation definitely takes time where all cooperation will be reviewed and make new agreements, there is always an impact on business ecology, companies must adapt to new standards because there will usually be reconstruction of partners, rising prices make a lot of burden not only companies but even state operations, oil will not easily go down in price, if you want a normal situation the war must be completely clear for peace a year or two from that can only run normally again, but if the conflict is not over then everything will be difficult to control, including oil prices which will certainly stay near its lowest price.
You see Wars do leave a long effect that people don't see immediately even right after the war ends the damages it caused to businesses, people's livelihood and the price of oil can't just be fixed once. So the truth is that in this kind of situation it will require patience and alot of time for the economy to bounce back to it's normal state, and for the balance companies and countries will have to adjust and when adjusting it will take a long period of time, so that's why we shouldn't be expecting things to just recover just after the war
I have seen a lot of news and live broadcasts from several countries and authorized officials, in this case, I mean the Iran war is currently having a big impact on oil needs and the global economy.
But the government is quick to act and thinks they will turn to other countries to stabilize oil and the economy for their respective countries, meaning the government will no longer focus on Iran's war on the oil issue, they will turn to the US, Brazil, Canada, Russia and other countries. others have the largest oil reserves.
As the saying goes, no rain lasts forever, and no war lasts forever.
Prices will return to normal, but not as soon as one might think once the conflict in the country comes to an end.
The longer the war continues, the greater the economic impact will be, with petroleum products being the most visible indicatoras oil prices affect other production sectors.
Oil reserves, which have been available until now, will gradually diminish if the largest oil sources are located in a country currently embroiled in conflict.
It's true, this does seem like oil will stay high for a while because there is no end in sight - Israel and America have started a war with no clear objective to end it. Oil feeds into all parts of the economy and is a raw ingredient for many things including plastic. When the flow gets restricted by 20% it's going to likely cause inflation around the same figure because of all the countries that are then competing for less availability. The poorest countries will suffer the most as per usual, because richer countries have more spare margin to tolerate increased prices and are the primary markets. Iran has no reason to give up now and it is a country that is built like a natural fortress, so it'd be a ridiculous idea to try and invade. Altogether we're in for a bumpy ride because these moronic leaders refuse to back down after they've made a stupid mistake.
It is true that after the war, it will take time for the economies of all countries to recover. The other thing is that if the war does not end, that is if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened then other countries will definitely find alternative routes to export their products or export oil. However due to this the price of imported products will definitely increase. But at least the supply will increase. And I also want the war to stop very soon, because first of all many innocent people are losing their lives due to the war. Also the economic situation of the whole world is getting worse. However the vacuum is never empty, just like if the Strait of Hormuz is closed an alternative will definitely be created.
Large price rises have happened before & they will again. It always happens during conflicts in countries that have large reserves. There is a little part of me that thinks these wars are purposefully started to remove a regime & then put a new leader in who will trade oil on better terms with the US. Hopefully it is all resolved soon & not too many more lives are needlessly lost.
That's why war always causes problems for some sectors. Now, even though oil prices aren't rising in my country, some transportation companies are starting to complain about panic queues at gas stations, making it difficult for their workers to get fuel. Imagine, in conditions like this, some companies are starting to worry about the current situation. As the war spreads and worsens, it's not impossible that certain countries will experience much worse impacts. Inflation could occur and the economy will be depressed creating new problems that will have significant impact and I hope this war ends quickly so that it doesn't become a much bigger problem in the future.
War negatively impacts many things. One of them is oil prices. Rising oil prices mean higher prices for many other things as well. Problems in transportation and production often lead to price increases.
Post-war economic recovery can also take a long time. Changes in oil prices will continue to be affected by the progress of the war. I hope the war ends as soon as possible.
What if things won't go back to normal anymore? The same things people have said during the covid19 pandemic when we've got the new norm.
And when prices are high, it is not going to back to how much it used to be before. So, bouncing back might not be a thing anymore but we have to accept all the new changes that we'll have to deal with. These wars and shortage of oil will make things quite more expensive.
The sad reality is that prices do not easily go back up once they start rising and this is something that scares many of the aftermath of war. It will take months before there is stability because. Then the question is what happens if the prices refuses to come down I will say as humans and how we have continued to actually swallow in bad times I think we will still be able to handle to this and simply bear it.
This has even been how the government even rate us and thats why they do exactly what they want with the notion that we will simply adjust when its necessary and thats why we accepted mediocrity all this while.