The competition for rare earth metals

Oil and gas are still key resources, but there's a new angle to the fight for materials. The situation with Russia invading Ukraine is tied to the hunt for rare earth metals. Other conflicts, like coups in parts of West Africa, Trump's interest in Greenland, and U.S. support for Ukraine, might also be linked to the demand for these resources. I'm really into this topic lately because I've noticed something unusual in my area. There’s been a noticeable spike in the number of foreigners, mostly from Asia, and many of them seem to be involved in illegal mining operations. Some got caught, and we found out they were digging up rare earth metals. Rare earths are actually a collection of 17 elements, with 15 of them being these silvery-white metals called lanthanides, along with scandium and yttrium. These minerals are split into strategic and critical categories. The EU lists 34 critical raw materials, with 17 of them classified as strategic. They're considered strategic because they're crucial for shifting to green technologies and are vital for defense and aerospace applications. The demand is skyrocketing globally because of the need to decarbonize economies. The competition for these resources is intense among global powers since they're crucial for things like LCD screens, lasers, and other tech.

Moving to another country to extract rare materials without permission already tells that there are flaws in the system. Some parts of the Asian and Western world has always find interest in other people's rare earth metals, especially in those third world countries. What if someone was actually paid?. It happens a lot in so many third world countries. These foreigners makes a deal with either the government or anyone in charge, in exchange for their earth metals. Majority of these third world countries don't even utilize these rare metals, which automatically gives advantage to the Asian and western world that knows how to utilize them well. The thing is, all focused has been channeled to Crude. Only a few knows how important these rare earth metals are, and they tend to dominate in that area. This reminds me of the good of days in Chemistry class. I only learnt 30 out of the 100+ elements in the periodic table because they were often used in calculations. Rare elements were a bit far,  so I showed less interest, and I think scandium is the only transition element that also happens to be a rare earth metal, but never heard of yttrium before.

Coup against the then Ukrainian President who is probably from Donbas was part of the root causes of Russia intervention in the regions and Ukraine, rather than so called rare earth metals. Crimea decided to become part of Russia through democratic means, a referendum, after the coup. And Donbas was subsequently invaded by Ukraine, and then began a war between Donbas and Ukraine before Russia finally intervened in 2022 to protect donbass and others. Had Russia provoked the coup and the war against Donbas, the whole thing would look suspicious. But it wasn't provoked by Russia which means Russia likely never anticipated having Donbas and others under her protection in order to mine rare metals. It was coup which was done for the purpose of full capture of Ukraine by pro western forces. As far as I can tell there were attempts to address the issue between donbass and Ukraine, with Russia and others acting as mediators, but recommendations such a decentralization of control of donbas was not implemented. That would have given Donbas some degree of autonomy or independence from Ukraine. The West Africa coups were as a result of weakening influence of West in the region and the escalation of security issues. It was actually predicted to happen due to the weakening influence. The stronger power which was Russia had to step in after the new West African leaders sought for her help against the terrorism in the region, and some kind of protection from French and others Trump interest in Greenland was mainly due to growing presence of China, and to some extent Russia. And USA deal with Ukraine for the resource was a compensation for the hugh free money and military assistant given to Ukraine for the the unprofitable war with Russia. The primary reasons for the world issues you highlighted are not rare metals but the issue of injustice, rejection of hostile/immoral foreign influence, insecurity,etc. Natural resource such as rare metals can be found everywhere on Earth. They could aswell be blamed for the cause of such crisis in any part of the world

It is better that we start to appreciate what nature has for us in abundance, because some are not having the privileges other countries are having when it comes to the abundance of natural resources, especially the crude oil and other natural elements found in abundance, we keep exploring them and using them, not minding if they could actually one day be in extinction or not, but because they are what the nature offers to us, we cant deny their abundance to humankind, because if it were to be man, things could have gone wrong soo much to an extent we cant have more access to them.

Excerpt from Wikipedia on the democratic referendum by Crimea to join Russia Majority of Donbas voters voted to join Russia too. This is about a legitimate right to be free from injustice and oppressive forces not about so called rare earth

It's not the rare earth which is lacking, the processing is the issue. In a world where there are no enemies the market rules the material is processed where it is cheapest. In an increasingly belligerent world a country needs to pay for processing if they like to have those materials.

If you dig a little deeper below the surface (excuse the pun), you'll find that while they have the label "rare earth metal" the majority aren't actually that rare. They can be extracted in lots of other locations, but they are often discarded byproducts of different mining operations. In order to extract the rare elements you need to build extensive refining systems which require a lot of capital upfront. China created these processes and scaled them up massively, but they are replicable elsewhere. The only reason other countries did not both was because they can be rather messy, toxic and China was previously a pretty reliable supplier of raw ingredients - but now they're stuck in a trade war they've decided to restrict the flow

Recently, a huge reserve of rare Earth was discovered in Sweden. This deposit could be worth billions and shift the geopolitical balance between Europe and China. Yet that deposit won't be dug and used due to enormous environmental concerns about mining operations. The cost for a clean extraction would be too high.

I recently learnt new things about the struggle in Africa especially my country Nigeria, that the poverty we face isn’t just a mere cause of bad leadership but also a structure raised and maintain by some countries that claims to be superior for reasons that are not justifiable like causing chaos and crisis or even wars in other countries through some so called AID organizations like the IMF, etc However, the core reasons for trying to provide such help is to in-debt the countries with this rare mineral resources especially crude oil and some metals to keep them in a situation where they will keep asking for help while they illegally mine and export resources which would have been used to enrich this countries like Nigeria to themselves, especially the use which has been found to be a major sponsor of a terrorist group called boko haram using the USAID organization while they go ahead to mine Tons of Golds in this regions. Perhaps, it’s now clearer to us that no country wants to genuinely help every one is after the resources in this countries which they indirectly destabilize.

In this era of computer chips the semiconductor industries are the hottest and make the most money, and rare earth enhances the production of semiconductors. That was why Trump told Zelensky to pay back the money they owe USA with rare earth. The US government wants to dominate the semi conductor industry, and have companies from Taiwan (TSMC) build plants in the US to avoid tarrif. The demand for rare earth is very high and miners would go extra mile to get them, many of them are walking down to different African countries in search of the material. It's wrong to steal raw materials without the consent of the government and the chief owners of the land. I often wake up to news of foreigners getting arrested and deported back to their respective nations.

I agree with you that the goals of Russia invading Ukraine wasn't mainly for rare earth metals, but this reason became essential later in negotation file with USA and Europe. Russia first goal is to forbid NATO from setting power army in its frontieres after Ukraine showed its ambitions to join the military ally with NATO. Putin decided to invade Cremea before invading all other regions to create like a safe armyless land between the two countries. Usually there is no single reason to start a war.

Natural resources might not be the only cause of these conflicts, but at least you agreed they are part of the problem.  This is another aspect of the discussion. Exploration of these raw materials would cause more harm than good. One will begin to wonder which technology the US will adopt to explore the resources in Ukraine when exploration starts.

The world today is changing rapidly, and keeping up with these changes is equally crucial. In 1992, when China was just opening up and modernizing its industry, Deng Xiaoping said, "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths." This phrase has since become a new "geopolitical doctrine" for China. At the time, the world was still preoccupied with oil as an instrument of power (OPEC, the 1970s oil crisis). But Deng had already foreseen that rare earths would become the new oil of the 21st century. China immediately took strategic action by investing heavily in rare earth exploration and production. It built and monopolized refining, making the world dependent on China. It established a selective export policy, using rare earths as a diplomatic bargaining chip, and integrated industries: rare earth products went directly into domestic manufacturing (technology, energy, military). Today, more than 80% of the world's rare earth supply is still processed in China. Thanks to Deng Xiaoping's long-term vision, China has become the gatekeeper of today's most strategic minerals. In the future, there will be a shift from oil diplomacy to rare earth diplomacy, born of the transformation of the global economic structure. The primary driver of this shift is technological progress. Rare earth minerals such as lithium, cobalt, neodymium, and dysprosium are at the heart of electric batteries, solar panels, autonomous vehicles, even AI and military technology. Without them, the transition to a "green economy" would be impossible. Countries that once dominated the OPEC region now face competition from countries possessing critical mineral reserves. China, for example, controls more than 60% of global rare earth production and over 80% of its refining. This gives Beijing a "geopolitical weapon" that is equal to, if not more strategic than, oil in the past. Developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are now the focus of attention. Like Saudi Arabia in the oil era, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chile, and Indonesia have become new hotspots due to their abundant cobalt, lithium, and nickel reserves. Rare earth minerals are not only crucial to the economy but also to the defense industry. Missiles, fighter jets, satellites, and radar all require these materials. Therefore, control of critical minerals becomes a direct part of national security strategy. Let's see if these countries will suffer a more updated and upgraded version of the resource curse in the future, where countries with reserves can become trapped in foreign exploitation without sustainable domestic development. In the next 10–20 years, global diplomacy will likely shift toward a mineral cartelization, similar to OPEC, but focused on lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. China will be the rare earth hegemon, while the US and Europe will be challengers. Developing countries will become the arena for competition; whoever can escape the raw material supply trap will rise to become a major geopolitical player. In other words, the global power map will be determined not by "who has the most oil wells," but by who can control the rare earth mineral supply chain that underpins future technologies. "Whoever controls rare earth minerals controls the future of global technology and energy." Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jing Ping firmly holds control of these rare earth minerals, just as America maintains the dollar. These rare earth minerals serve as China's secret weapon to prevent America from overtaking them, as the majority of America's rare earth mineral needs are supplied by China. The argument between Trump and Zelensky during his visit to America, as well as Trump's pressure on Zelensky to end the war, stemmed from Ukraine's inability to pay the war costs incurred by the United States. The rare earth mineral map Zelensky provided was based on Soviet-era mineral data and has not been verified by modern means. Most of Ukraine's rare earth reserves are based on Soviet-era geological surveys and have not been revalidated since Ukraine's independence. The majority of deposits, including those containing rare earths and lithium, are located in areas under Russian control. Zelensky offered Trump a winning plan, while the reality is that rare earth reserves are virtually non-existent. These reserves may not be economically viable due to high extraction costs and the need for advanced refining technology. Therefore, none of Ukraine's rare earth reserves are internationally recognized as economically viable.

The Western world has been exploiting the resources of other nations for centuries. Lastly, it was China that handled all the industrial processing. Now the Western world points fingers at China because its CO2 emissions and pollution are unbearable. Too lazy. I am wondering how Trump's plan to recover some industrial processing power will fit into this rhetoric, but it's a long shot, versus the incredible dynamics of his positions.

The exploitations of rare raw materials/metals  from the third world mainly by the Western countries and later followed by some of the Asian countries  didn't really started today. What do you think was the motive for colonisation in the first instance? So they be able to have access and exploit these resources, and today we still have it in that form through a system of neocolonialism. Where some native authorities aid in these illegalities behind closed doors.

Do you mean that Ukraine had no way to encourage USA but to offer its rare metals map in exchange for logistic and military support? I think you have a point here. All the facts valid what you just said. Those metals are not economically considered accessible so neither Trump or Putin looks really interested on them. While Zelensky has no other offer to give mainly to US because he already garanted the continious support from Europe for geostrategic reasons.

Rare earths are currently a major focus for many developed countries because they are a crucial resource for supporting several strategic industries, such as high-tech industries, defense systems, and others. The importance of these resources is growing, especially with the increasing global demand for advanced technology, leading many developed countries to pay high prices just to obtain these resources. However, the problem is that despite the importance of these resources, not all countries have the capacity to manage them. Most countries that possess these resources, especially developing countries, are exploited by developed countries that need them. For example, my country is willing to grant the United States access to rare earth mining and exports, as a bargaining chip against high import tariffs. While these rare earths are crucial today, developing countries that possess these resources but lack the capacity to manage them may simply become "cash cows" for developed countries that need them.

Trump can sell this issue for domestic political gain (attracting working class and industrial votes), but in terms of execution, the US still lags far behind China in the rare earth mineral supply chain. His rhetoric is strong, but the global structure still favors China, which has already established a dirty industry with high socio-environmental costs. Possible scenarios for Trump's future actions are: - Simply a symbol of resistance to Chinese dominance. (Rhetoric) The emphasis remains on America First, creating the impression of protecting American workers. However, in practice, rare earth mineral processing remains difficult due to high costs in the US, strict environmental regulations, and the global industry's dependence on low Chinese prices. Ultimately, the US may only develop a small refining capacity but still send concentrate to Asia for processing. - Coercing the domestic rare earth mineral industry with protectionism through import tariffs, subsidies, and military contracts. Civilian industries (electric cars, green energy) are also encouraged by the availability of domestic supplies, but costs remain high, making American finished products less competitive than Chinese ones. The US has seen limited growth in the military and strategic high-tech sectors, but it cannot completely replace China's dominance in the global market. - Trump's Energy Doctrine: Return to Fossils, Ignore Green. Trump prefers shale oil and gas as the basis of national energy, making rare earth minerals a lesser priority. Trump likely views green energy and electric cars as a global elite agenda that is detrimental to the US. In this scenario, the US mines only a limited amount and remains dependent on global supply chains (including China). This means rare earths become merely a political campaign issue, not a pillar of industrialization. China is already far advanced in developing a rare earth mineral ecosystem from upstream to downstream, despite its high pollution levels. The US under Trump tends to be caught between political ambition and cost realities.If Trump focuses on military protectionism (scenario 2), the US could gain a new foothold. But if it falls into scenarios 1 or 3, industrial recovery will be merely rhetoric for his voter base, without overturning China's dominance. The fact is that Ukraine does not have rare earth mineral reserves as promised by Zelensky (the amount is small and if the map is updated the location of rare earth minerals is not in Ukraine but in the territory controlled by Russia). This made Trump angry and felt that US involvement in the Ukrainian war was not profitable, because Ukraine could not pay the costs of war support that had been incurred by the US.

Just because one did a bad thing, doesn't justify other doing a bad thing. Western world and their colonization is the reason why they are so rich. If you go back a thousand years ago, the gap between Europe and Asia wasn't as big as this, but now when you look at it, it's bigger, that is because of resources being plundered by them. Should we be okay with another nation doing that? Absolutely not, that's still bad, call for reparations if you want, but not illegal mining. I would say, a simple solution is right there; all of western world rejects ALL Chinese companies from selling in their nations, until they fix their CO2 emissions, suddenly, China will be the cleanest nation in the world to be allowed to sell again.

The western world have long been exploiting underdeveloped countries of their precious metals from time immemorial, they approach with a bid to develop the countries in terms of UBE(Universal basic education) and investment into the economy of the country to deceive the common man thereby secretly reaching agreements with the corrupt leaders of such underdeveloped countries to be exploiting them of their natural resources. Countries in which their leaders refuse them, they incite some unrest in them and eliminate such leaders while making the people believe the leader was bad. They come as friends with smiling face while their intentions are not in the interest of those countries they approach. Same reason western countries are displeased with the BurkinsFaso president's rejection of their hand of friendship knowing fully well they were after the gold richness in the country. They go around making the world believe that they are his friends and he is rejecting them while in reality the are wolves that wanted to prey on the country abundance but were casted out of the Burkina faso economy after the military takeover