The financial fallout of a potential war with Iran

I really think we could all suffer a lot if the US decides to go to war with Iran. We'll probably see a spike in oil prices, making everything else more costly too. The Gulf countries, which supply a ton of oil to the West, might get cut off from exporting, and a lot of NATO bases in the region, including some in Europe like Souda in Greece and Akrotiri in Cyprus, could become really unstable. There's chatter that one reason Iran is being targeted is because they’re using their oil to keep the costs of bitcoin mining super low, like around 2k USD per BTC. Even if that’s true, it’s absurd to think a whole nation would be bombed over something like this.

And America just did it, the world is just preparing for the impact of it after this weekend. AFAIK, it's about the threat that America has seen on them and what they're trying to say that they've got some nukes that can shake the world. The media is all over it and saying a lot of reasons that we can't figure it out then. But I guess we all agree that it's the oil that they have got and it has a probable connection to what US just did with Venezuela.

I agree that a major military conflict in the Middle East has the potential to impact global energy markets. And as far as I know, a large part of the world's oil supply comes from the Persian Gulf region. About 20% of oil is transported through the strait of sormuz. Therefore, if there is instability in this route, it is very natural that oil prices will increase and its impact will affect the global economy. And those who say that the only reason for the attack on Iran is Bitcoin mining. Then they are wrong. Many major media outlets often report that the nuclear program, strategic alliances and regional security are the main reasons for the attack. However,It may be true to some extent that Bitcoin mining is the main reason,But it is very unlikely that it is the main reason.

I also think a war w/ Iran would have serious economic consequences not just for the region but for the whole world. Oil markets are very sensitive to conflict in the Middle East & even the fear of disruption can push prices up quickly if shipping routes in the Gulf are affected or if production slows down it could easily lead to higher fuel costs w/c then makes transport, food & other goods more expensive globally. I think it’s unlikely that Iran’s cheap energy for Bitcoin mining could be a reason for conflict there are usually much bigger geopolitical & security issues behind decisions like war. Crypto mining might be an interesting economic angle but it doesn’t seem realistic that an entire military conflict would be driven by that alone.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cewz8wenp8yo The impact of these attacks on the economy is already visible with the rise in the price of oil and even gold. Besides the increase in maritime freight by up to 5 times the normal value, some insurance companies have cancelled contracts or started charging much higher premiums due to the danger that crossing the Strait of Hormuz has become. It's not just about oil and gas; the impacts will soon extend to other sectors. Although we have no way of confirming whether it's true or not, I reject the hypothesis that Bitcoin is the reason this war is happening, as it doesn't make sense in the context in which the attacks occurred, and these conflicts are not new; they predate Bitcoin's creation.

This is almost certain. Because when oil prices rise, inflation tends to rise again and most sectors of the economy will soon feel the impact. No offense intended, but anyone who puts forward this theory or believes in it is completely ignorant. As far as I know, disagreements and conflicts of interest between Iran and the US began to escalate significantly during the period from 1979 to 1981. And this is not the first time the US has attacked Iran, so this conflict has absolutely nothing to do with bitcoin.

Most wars start very pettily. To logical minds, there's no reason worth starting a war for. But the leaders of our world are greedy and will do anything for power. All the consequences we are about to see are all because US wanted more for themselves.

As per white house official , US intention to attack Iran was due to seize all of oil owned by Iran. However, it's not really clear whether they will use it to incentiziing bitcoin mining. As i know there's no confirmation regarding incentivizing the bitcoin mining. I guess they're only looking for the oil just for themselves. The idea to use it as incentive to the mine bitcoin seems a bit illogical to me. When the price of oil keeps increase, US can be benefit by selling it for themselves. So why do they need to use oil robbed from another country to incentivize the bitcoin mining?

No the point of the rumour was that Iran was using its cheap energy production costs to undercut American bitcoin miners. But this seems like too ridiculous of a reason to start a whole war. In theory any state with own energy resources, gas or even solar,  can create an apparatus to mine bitcoin at scale with very cheap costs. But America's issue generally is when a state gives back to the people instead of corporetions from the means of production. In Iran you can fill up your tank and heat your home for pennies of a US dollar. The state utilizes the resources to benefit the public and the US can't profit from this.

Yeah I think you’re right the oil part oil would probably be the biggest issue anytime their is tension in that region the prices react almost immediately am not really sure about the Bitcoin mining reason though. It feels a bit doubtful compared to the bigger political and energy interests involved.

China and Japan are also importing oil from strait of Hormuz, Japan alone was importing 90% of its crude oil from there. While China was importing a lot less compared to Japan. Anyway, the prices are going to skyrocket in no time. Those who think they are far away and won't be affected by the war need to understand which countries are at war. Maybe these countries don't have Atomic power but still, Iran controls some things that can cause you harm. Now the US has to face some pressure from other countries, which will make connections more bad between Trump and other countries. Trump will eventually be taken down as president because I think this is the last chance he has been given. Not confirmed, though, just speculation. Iran is being attacked because Israel asked the US to do it, there are no other reasons, but if we explore and want to divert the attention of everyone, to such useless statements, then it works. But this is not the truth.

I think it's Iran's Nuclear stocks. The Iranian government is increasing its nuclear weapons, which are becoming a big threat to the region, and if Iran becomes very powerful, Israel is the one that's going to be targeted because of their history against the Arabs, so the US is helping Israel to stop the threat. Our country is thousands of miles from the conflict, but we have so many workers in that region, and an important supply of oil comes from that region. Just today, we have an oil price hike of 20%, it's kinda alarming, really.

Bitcoin mining, I doubt that but they are behind the oil source of Iran, they started with Venezuela and now back at Iran with an excuse of nuclear weapons but we all know this is just a lie to take over the country. The rest of the world may not be affected much apart from buying the oil with inflated price but this should not be tolerated, what if the oil runs out here, will be targeting the next one?

That's likely to happen if the war drags on for many months, but the US forces are neutralising the Iranian forces and capabilities to fight back. The US is fully aware that it needs to end the war or control the Strait of Hormuz so oil-rich countries can pass in and supply the world with its needed oil. I hope the war will not be like Afghanistan, that drag on for many years, because if that happens, yes, many countries' economies will suffer, and the United Nations needs to intervene to stop the war; it's a concern for many countries like mine.

Everything that moves becomes more expensive - which is everything. Qatar already halted LNG exports following drone strikes. Saudi paused a refinery. The Gulf states are now actively being destabilized by the conflict to protect them or whatever is the stated rationale. So the argument goes (if we're being precise about it) like this: Iran has subsidized electricity from its oil and gas reserves. It uses to mine Bitcoin at something like $1,300-2,000 a coin (depending on what sources you're reading) when the global average cost is maybe forty, fifty, sometimes a hundred thousand a coin in places where we have real energy prices. And due to sanctions, the Central Bank uses mined BTC for funding imports, running foreign transactions, and operating outside of the dollar denominated system. It's actually clever work around, even if I hate to say that. Now apparently some people are arguing this (the mining, the cheap energy exploit of the financial blockade, those hypothesis) is part of why Iran is being bombed. I don't even know what to do with that sentence. Does that sound like the world we wanted to create when we were designing these systems? Akrotiri in Cyprus already took drone strike. Souda Bay in Crete is within the range of Iranian ballistic missiles. They've said explicitly that any country facilitating strikes is in the frame. So Greece, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean in general, these are European territories, EU members or British soil, being dragged into a conflict they didn't vote for, didn't choose and can't meaningfully opt out of due to base agreements signed decades ago. The entire thing just radiates outwards. And underneath all of it this sort of seriously surreal layer where Bitcoin's role in sanctions evasion has become a casus belli. Or at least part of one. You're not wrong that it is ridiculous. It may be actually more than ridiculous. It might be the new normal.

I'm having a hard time believing that as well. The world economy is going to go down with this war, and it's going to be way worse than the Ukranian-Russian war. Iran is strategically targeting to cause a disruption, and it will affect the whole world. The economy is already badly inflated (high inflation) with the current conditions, a new war and increasing oil prices will make the conditions, especially for the west, unbearable. This war isn't going to end anytime soon, and there won't be any decisive "winners" from this situation, Trump is going to get impatient as Iran has already shown that it can withstand his strikes.

Sounds dramatic as we can imagine I guess and that's just an illustration of how war can cause economy chaos destabilizing the welfares of common residence with stock traders being badly affected over difficulties for supplies to transport goods or experts and tourists restrictions to cross border in a waring country. A war that has to do with the great US should be equivalent to cause global economy panics and so also is Iran economy influence in the global level can make things hard for other affiliate countries which could totally reform the economy infrastructure periodically.

All these have already happened and more are still coming as implication to what had started, Iran has been invaded, oil price skyrocket and we could still see more of this subsequently at the cause of time, except if there is an intervention and the wall ended as early as possible, but for now you will hardly see a country that is not yet affected by this indirectly because of the inflation that is looming the entire economy.

Iran has conceded to refrain from action against its neighbours if they dont aid strikes on them which is half way to a cease fire possibly.  USA and Israel have bases/forces too close that Iran could hope to end the war by mutual agreement without them.    The cause of the war is Iran wont follow any guidelines, its essentially a military dictatorship that wants to bring about the end of one the nations who are heavily military supported.  They cant be bargained with, they are extremely capable and powerful with one of the largest energy resources in the world at a cheap cost.    The economics is energy and they have a stranglehold on trade in the area, so that is their leverage and also its not an easy country to invade on foot apparently.  I rate it below 10% for suffering tanks across the border, occupation and so on.   I wish the Kurds had some power to settle but thats very unlikely and all the major powers have continually left Kurd forces without any real support or long term alliance, its doubtful they believe it now.   So its oil, gas and shipping that settles this war, every party involved has action in that equation and wants a ceasefire even if it cant be peace.   Its a terrible mess, dont start wars like this without some idea how to close it.  20 years of Afghanistan should have been enough warning, even Russia didnt try that and at present its making Russia look like the sensible mediator.

If? Bro, where are you living? They are already in a war against Iran and oil prices are already going up. Things are getting expensive as I am writing, and this war has shown us a lot of things that number always win, no matter how powerful the weapons you have, because Iran had the missiles and they had a lot of them but Israel and the US don't have a lot of interceptors. The second is, how important oil is for everyone, oil can be declared as the main factor to increase and decrease the prices of products and services too. Because if a plumber is driving to your place via car for his service even, he will charge more you know why. Oil has become an important part of our lives and without it, everything could halt.