The financial impact of mass deportation in the US

The Trump administration is pouring tons of cash into its immigration policies. There's $45 billion earmarked for new immigration detention centers, including ones for families. They allocated $29.9 billion for ICE's enforcement and deportation operations, which nearly triples their budget. Almost $30 billion is set aside specifically for deportation-related costs like hiring officers, giving bonuses, transportation, and upgrading equipment. A whopping $46 billion is being spent on building the border wall along the U.S.-Mexico border over the next four years. Plus, Congress just approved an extra $170 billion for deportation efforts. So, what’s the economic fallout from all this deportation activity? You gotta think that the investments in construction and the hiring of enforcement agents must be boosting some local economies where these jobs are needed. But what about the long-term effects on the bigger picture? Immigration usually means cheap labor, and a lot of sectors like farming and construction depend on that low-cost workforce.

You are aware that the US Mexican wall is only about a 3rd of the borders length https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/border-issues/2025/02/05/number-of-barrier-miles-trump-added-to-southwest-border-wall/78002162007/

But they are illegals. They never had the right to live in the US. If the US economy really needed those people, they could ease their immigration policies. Two wrongs don’t make a right. An illegal is an illegal. If it takes millions of dollars to fix Biden’s mistake, so be it. That’s what the American people wanted from Trump anyway. That’s why they voted Trump and Trump is fulfilling his promise. Dems say those illegals were working in low pay jobs which most Americans wouldn’t take. Allowing illegals in wasn’t the solution to that problem. It is a temporary fix to delay the real problem and that fix creates its own problems as the population of illegals went up, crime rates went up as well. That’s why people reacted and elected Trump.

If laborers are expensive, they should spent a lot of money in machine. That's the way to make them profitable in the long run if they no longer accept illegal immigrants. I think that was supposed to be to make them profitable. Just like tipping culture in restaurant, the workers didn't get paid enough for their jobs, instead of fixing the issues to make workers get paid enough so the customers don't have to tip, they just let it flow.

You do realize that the most deportations under any president happened by Clinton right? That's surely not what he was elected for and yet he was more to the point in continuing the tradition of apprehensions and deportations as previous administrations were. I would argue that today's standard of aggressive border apprehensions and deportations even STARTED under Clinton. The kids in cages fiasco is something his administration initiated and has never stopped since. Deportations also didn't slow down under Biden, although COVID and lockdowns might have reduced apprehensions since fewer people would want to enter a country that is under lockdown. It's funny that Trump spends so much money to try and actually find people to deport and in this desperate attempt finds many people who were staying in the US for so many years they have now made families and should have been naturalized. The outcomes in the economy will be long-lasting if these positions filled by people staying in the us long-term (illegal or not) aren't filled. It'll be funny when Trump realizes it can't be done any other way and starts allowing Mexicans back in in some way or another. The reason many people voted for Trump, animosity for foreigners, isn't something money cares about. Big corporations need cheap labour and they're going to get it one way or another. And Trump surely is a president that bows to corporate interests.

It's pure populist politics, but it's an absolute mess and sometimes the American public are easily fooled by empty catchphrases that sound good but mean little. There are some bad immigrants and every immigrant should go through the proper legal process instead of hopping the border, but the current net is capturing plenty of people beyond that. As you say, lots of honest, decent and hardworking people are doing the jobs that Americans simply wouldn't accept for dirt cheap wages. Trump claimed to want to minimize government, yet he is spending billions and is going to name things much more expensive for the average citizen. He is declaring a national emergency to consolidate his dictator like powers but this is only weakening the best democracy in the world.

I will give benefit of doubt here if you say Biden's government ruined the immigration system of the United States and fixing the cracked bricks would require restructuring by amending regulations and as well the immigration system. All these would be sorted with funds but we don't need to trust these politicians to the fullest because it might look they have positive intentions for the public while they have ulterior motives that may not be obvious. But don't be surprised that the huge amount budgeted for this projects is nothing but a strategy to embezzle public funds and accounts it to the overhyped public beneficial projects but on the honest is a total useless proposal such as Trump deportation of the immigrants thought to straighten the US economy. Why don't consider the their essence also contributing to do jobs that citizen can not do and the revenues on taxes of those immigrants. Not until the State is battling overpopulation or there are illegal records of those immigrants, if not, I see no essence and Trump is only beating around the bush with all being emphasized. But in as much every Federations have their own policies, it should be accorded because I solely don't support illegality as those who crosses the bother illegally are breaking the laws.

Many illegal immigrants have been deported back to their countries in the Trump administration before this was coming, I see this as a way of helping the people who wish to ha e a better life approach and assist them with the basics of life for a living, other administrations before Trump have also been reporting illegal immigrants and this new development will help to ensure that everyone is been treated with equal rights to live their dream life.

You don't have to be fooled mate and majority of these news are false. The news are published in a way that would interest the public and people would think that the government are taking a drastic step to encumber corruption and illegal immigrants to their respective counties which is not. Trump has a high taste of reducing the population of the United States especially his hate for immigrants. He claims to provide thousands of jobs for the American people by reducing the population of immigrants which I see like a weak strategy to make life harder for people and make jobs available with no one to take them.

You seem care more to the illegal immigrants instead of the US citizen itself. Many of these illegal immigrants never paid taxes but use all the taxpayer funded resources. The mass deportation will also give more resource for US Citizen who lived in the poverty level to get better education, heathcare service, and etc as more resources can be re-allocated to them.  Yeah, it might cost billion, but that's to ensure US won't be flooded by millions if immigrants every year.

Look https://americansfortaxfairness.org/undocumented-immigrants-contribute-economy/ They get paid less, work harder than average workers and they also paid their taxes. AFAIK US isn't a paradise where the country willing to give donation and free stuff to help the poor, instead it's all about money. Hence, people are saying if an Average Joe dreaming to work in US, they're high likely will become homeless.

I believe some of Donald Trump policies has not given his the best name but in the case of this deportation I think it's actually not bad that is if the person deported has been fairly and correctly judged to be an illegal immigrants. I don't think it is right for anyone to illegally enter a country no matter how touching their stories is. They are making a mockery of people who take their time and effort to see they enter that same country illegally. Also Donald Trump is always under controversial captions but he is not the First American president to take deportation seriously, Infact Barrack Obama has done more deportation that him.

Trump's leadership is characterized by nationalist and performative populism, so his policies are heavily centered on claims of protecting American citizens (us vs. them). Issues of immigration and globalization are intertwined with firm solutions and aggressive, symbolic policies of shooting and banning entry. The executive branch works quickly to accelerate presidential directives by changing immigration rules and enforcement practices without sustained legislative consensus. Deportation priorities, asylum restrictions, and criminalization of illegal crossings make policies more harsh and administrative. Trump employs a new, old-style doctrine by constructing an America First narrative that is no longer relevant to the development of modern, democratic US society. The America First policy, adopting selective isolationism, is a US Grand Strategy move under the Donald Trump administration to address societal problems. This is done because Trump narrowly interprets economic, social, and even immigration issues under the pretext of national security. The America First doctrine ultimately serves as a counternarrative to the presence of immigrants who have significantly contributed to the US economy. Furthermore, the existence of white supremacy is also a narrative constructed during the colonial era that has exacerbated the divide between whites and blacks in the US. Therefore, it is understandable that the America First Doctrine is unpopular with some members of the US public and the international community. Selective isolationism also impacts global economic uncertainty due to restrictions on cooperation, which are perceived to lead to economic losses. Trump's pragmatic transactions and geopolitics at the bilateral level, using the slogan "America First," have resulted in pressure on Mexico, combining diplomatic pressure, sanctions, and incentives for cooperation in enforcement. The Gulf of America is a strategy of pressure/political performativity to force negotiations and satisfy the populist base. Besides immigrants, mass deportations have become an exit point due to Trump's concern that large amounts of American technological data or information are being taken and then developed or modified by other countries to improve their capabilities through students or workers living in the United States (an infiltration program). An example is the suspension of study visas for Chinese students due to concerns that Chinese intelligence agencies are seeking to tap into critical fields in technology, AI, biomining, bioengineering, viruses, neuroscience, and other advanced sciences. In addition to the trade war, the current tariff war has seen America enter a science war (a military battlefield). For Trump, the ultranationalist, this is a strategy to protect US national interest and national security so that the American market is no longer sucked up by China, so that America's influence in Asia and Africa is no longer sucked up by China, so that America's knowledge is not sucked up by China and especially so that America can control the world's rare earth minerals which are currently dominated by China. Even if the US doubles or triples border spending, it still won't address the root causes of migration (regional instability, poverty, cartels, labor supply and demand). In other words, more enforcement spending may temporarily reduce flows, but the political, humanitarian, and economic costs, including potential disruptions to trade with Mexico, could far exceed this seemingly small percentage of GDP. As a relative percentage of GDP, current border spending is quite small (about 0.1% of GDP). This means that, on a macro level, it doesn't erode the national economy in a single year. However, in absolute terms (tens of billions of dollars per year) and politically/budgetarily, the figure is substantial, with real trade-offs (funding for walls, detention, staff, facilities versus education, infrastructure, and healthcare). Furthermore, the hidden costs—social costs, litigation, remittance impacts, and supply chain disruptions if tariffs or retaliation occur—are far greater and longer-term. Independent reports indicate that accumulated enforcement spending since 2003 has reached hundreds of billions. https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-04/2024_0314_us_customs_and_border_protection.pdf

You can think about this situation on a much smaller scale, such as in a single household. Imagine one household with 5 members doing great in terms of income and stability, you can't just shovel some outsiders (like an adopted teen) inside it and expect the household to stay the same. It depends on the level of education, culture, character, work ethics, etc. Even if the new member adds some to the income, it doesn't mean that the household's general well-being is better. Even more problematic if the new member brings more problems than benefits. The problem of the US (and the EU) is that the migrants suck more money than they generate. This is because a lot of them aren't skilled/educated, and some cannot even speak the country's language. They also come as job seekers/unemployed and become the competition for the existing (local) workforce. To avoid this situation, countries have a checklist of who should get a permit, who's gonna be a permanent resident, etc. But the system is destroyed by illegal aliens and asylum seekers. Thus, the mass deportation is an expensive price the government must pay (in the short term) to fix the long-term economic problem.

Of course not. You, with your preconceived bias, insist on proving what you have already decided. It doesn't matter what you say to him, you're not going to convince him. In Europe, we have the same problems you had there before Trump. They are letting in illegal immigrants en masse, giving them benefits from day one, crime is on the rise everywhere, ghettos are being created, services are deteriorating, and these leftists don't see any problem with it. The most paradigmatic case is that of the UK. With Brexit, they got rid of the Poles and Italians, but they continued to let in a lot of non-Europeans, mainly Muslims, and the establishment has been busy covering up all the mass crimes they have committed. The most paradigmatic case is that of thousands of girls raped by Pakistani gangs over decades.

Illegal immigrants means there is no tax coming from these people for IRS so if they can deport some and all then the emplyment crisis can be controlled but the employers are good and stable enough to pay the higher salary for immigrants who come legally as labour or locals because the wage will be way higher than what they are paying. That will collapse the business and their profits or even can bankrupt small ones mean they will get much lesser tax than before. In theory the result is different but in reality it will be different.

Regardless of their contributions to the economy, if they came in illegally, they should be deported. These workers are exploited by big employers who take advantage of their illegal status. This policy will also serve as a deterrent to other immigrants who want to come in illegally. Trump should also devise other means to cover the labour shortage gaps created by these mass deportations. But I am not pleased with Trump's attack on educational institutions. Revoking a student's visa because of racial, religious, or cultural affiliations is against the founding principles of the US. It is hurting the educational sector financially.

To me Trump immigration policy is too harsh and appearing more like war. Immigration have been the backbone of the US and even Trump's ancestors are not Americans. He should loosen up a little and modify his approach to reflect decency and respect for human lives. Illegal immigration is a problem globally, even my country is facing the same problem but it's a situation that should be managed with "carrot and stick approach".

The biggest cost is the alteration to cost of labor and productivity lost from that missing population of workers, some business may be lost so that that's inflation in labor cost and some deflation from the lost business.   The buildings cost is just more taxes, nothing new there.   Some would try to argue its productive to spend money, the broken window parable or fallacy however its labelled nowadays but its just money spent on unproductive activity imo.

My opinion... the topic is much more complex and should not be discussed solely from an economic perspective, as it also involves politics, social issues and especially national security. Do you agree? But... if I discuss all these topics, my post will become enormous, so I'll focus solely on the economic issue. Adding to everything you've already said, I will say: these workers, even though they were undocumented immigrants, were also consumers within the US economy... they bought food, paid their rent, and sent money home to their families, keeping the economy going... when someone removes them from the country, they're disrupting not only the production chain but also the demand for products and services they consumed... the negative impact is twice as bad, do you agree? Anyway... they're spending trillions to restrict access to cheap labor (as you yourself said), which also affects domestic production, and the reason for this is to serve a political narrative! Economically, this is unjustifiable... but as I said at the beginning of my post, there are other factors that weigh more heavily.