What do you all think? Is a rate cut happening this month? Over on Polymarket, around 95% of bets are leaning towards a cut, and there’s over $200 million in total volume in Fed-related markets. If they do cut rates, do you think the crypto market will react positively and bounce back?
The recent rate war have pushed bitcoin to the current price and for sure if there is more rate caught innthis coming month this call for concern and for us to prepare ahead of time and making sure that the impact of that wont be so severe on our cryptocurrency portfolio, so we may likely see a more bearish market in the end of this month.
So far so good, here's what the market think about rate cuts during the October feds meeting.
Market says 25bps rate cuts are coming with 95% certainly. Personally, I think we will get rate cuts same as September simply because the Feds is understand substantial pressure from the presidency to cut rates even further than it already has and everyone believes that we be getting quantitative easing soon after more than 4 years of quantitative tightening.
Money printing season about to resume.
There is a very high chance that rates will be cut. However, I will not be surprised if Trump pressures Powell into increasing rates instead of cutting it, something I know Trump can do to save the US dollar. If it happens this way, a lot of people will lose money in Polymarket because of the massive number of people betting on rate cuts. Such is a risky bet in my opinion because there are indications that there will be efforts at saving the dollar and rate hike is one easy way of doing that.
The best thing for us at the moment is to buckle up for More downtime for major assets in the stock market, this is because as at the moment and with the current standings is obviously a fact that more rate cut is expected and that means more value decrease for those assets, although we should expect less impact on the price of assets like Bitcoin since the September rate cut and the rest have been felt greatly and we can't feel any more heat than what we have seen already.
Rates cuts are bullish in principle since they mean it's much cheaper to borrow and invest in risk assets like Bitcoin and other crypto majors. My reply that you quoted was about crypto not stocks because stocks have been breaking all time highs after all time highs while crypto on the other hand has been super lagging in that regard so I think rate cuts benefit crypto more than it does for the stocks market.
However, bigger impact will be if the Feds stop QT and resume some nice QE (quantitative easing) to go along with these rate cuts.
There is a huge chance but whether or not the market gonna suddenly turns bullish is still a question.
I mean the price could be very well get priced in already to current market but knowing the recent dump that happened out of nowhere I bet it could change the trend.
If trump force FED to cut rate again maybe it will happen.
Macroeconomic data is highly anticipated, especially if the final interest rate cut is made and confirmed by Mr. Powell. The market is already quite tired of the top-down sweeping pattern.
BTC price in this moment is 106-106 K spinning around.
If my memory serves me right, we have a rate cut last time and that news pushes a lot of crypto to it's new all time high, including Bitcoin.
So we can only hope that he will have a rate cut for this month, because it could be another catalyst that will push all the market again, and least bounce back because we all know that it's been bleeding for this week.
We can only hope that this will be the case so all eyes is going to watch this news for sure.
We can "hope" but the reality is that we already had a cut very recently, so it means that we are not going to get a cut that quickly yet again. For it to make sense, we would have to have a very very low inflation and need of a cut, but we are not there at the moment.
I would say it would make sense for it to stay the same, we didn't have a huge inflation or we didn't had a very big drop in inflation, it didn't move much and there isn't any other reason neither, so there is no point on moving the rates at the moment. I am not expecting a cut from them so soon after the last one, it would have to take a few months at least before they can start. This period it doesn't even show the full effects of the cut that we already have, it is not the same thing at the moment.
These rate cuts doesn't guarantee the market to be bullish so we don't know how it will react and that's going to depend on how the FED's announcement. But I think that the recovery is imminent and just after it has dropped so much, it's normal to see this huge drops with a counterpart of a greater recovery which could happen before or after the rate cut announcement. So hold onto your plans and what you are up to, we'll never know until the date of it comes.